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Is There a Shortage or Glut of Freight Shipping Capacity? Print
Tuesday, 27 July 2010 04:30

That is what readers of an NYT article on higher shipping fees for faster service must be wondering. The article tells readers that shippers now have a shortage of space because:

"With little demand for shipping, ocean carriers took ships out of service: more than 11 percent of the global shipping fleet was idle in spring 2009, according to AXS-Alphaliner, an industry consultant."

Okay, so we are seeing a big run-up in prices and, "fighting for freight, retailers are outbidding each other to score scarce cargo space on ships, paying two to three times last year’s freight rates — in some cases."

ummm, what happened to the 11 percent of shipping fleet that is now idle? The article does make a brief reference to this idle capacity later, noting that firms are reluctant to bring it back on line. This sounds a bit like a case of collusion to keep prices high. It might make for a good article by an enterprising reporter.

(I'm back from the DC power failure - 32 hours in my hood.)

 
Reporters Say the Darndest Things: CNN and Per Capita GDP Print
Sunday, 25 July 2010 14:18

CNN had a segment on inequality in Brazil in which it told viewers:

"The country's Gross Domestic Product -- the value of goods and services it produces -- was $2 trillion in 2009, the 10th largest in the world, according to the CIA World Factbook. But per capita income for the same year was estimated at $10,200, the 105th highest in the world. Simply stated, most of the wealth being produced is not finding its way down to most Brazilians."

Actually, per capita income reveals nothing about inequality. It is simply GDP divided by the population. Brazil has a relatively low per capita income because it has a large population. The number for per capita income would be the same if everyone had the same income or one person had it all.

The piece could have referred to Brazil's Gini index, which is a measure on inequality. At 56.7, it is one of the highest in the world, although it has been dropping in recent years.

(HT to Robert Naiman.)

 

 
The Post Cleans Up for Republican Tax Cutters Print
Sunday, 25 July 2010 07:13

The lead article in the Sunday Post reported on the battle over extending President Bush's tax cuts. At one point it told readers that: "because they [the tax cuts] were expected to eventually cause huge deficits, Republicans wrote them to expire in 2010."

Actually the story is somewhat more pernicious. President Bush had set a budget target for his tax cuts. Had they run through 2011 the cost would have exceeded his target. Therefore they wrote the law so that the cuts ended in 2010, keeping the 10-year cost within his target.

The article also includes the bizarre statement: "And with unemployment at 9.5 percent, even some Democrats are queasy about raising taxes on high earners -- a category that includes many small-business owners -- when policymakers are trying to encourage them to create jobs."

Actually, there is little evidence that raising taxes on high income households will have any notable impact on job creation. (Job growth was quite rapid under the Clinton era tax rates.) Furthermore, many of the Democrats who oppose raising taxes on the wealthy have opposed many or all of President Obama's stimulus measures, indicating that they have little concern about job creation.

It is certainly more plausible that these politicians are worried about campaign contributions from high income households, an issue that remarkably was never mentioned once in this article.

 
The Washington Post Confuses Supporters of Lower Pay for Auto Workers With Supporters of the Free Market Print
Sunday, 25 July 2010 07:00

In an article that discussed the two-tier pay system that Chrysler and GM adopted as part of their rescue plan, the Post told readers that the debate over autoworkers' wages during the bailout pitted "the advocates of the free market against those for a 'fair wage.'" Actually, there was no one in this debate advocating a free market. Those who wanted to see the wages of union auto workers cut were still very supportive of the licensing and professional restrictions that protect doctors and other highly paid professionals from foreign competition. These people also support other major forms of interference with market outcomes such as copyrights and patent protection.

The only clearly recognizable view held by those who insisted that autoworkers wages lowered to $14 an hour was that they wanted to see autoworkers get paid less money. The Post should simply report what people say and not attribute an ideology to them which almost certainly does not fit reality.  

 
Another Front Page Editorial on Deficits at the Washington Post Print
Saturday, 24 July 2010 09:59

Sometimes the Post just leaves readers speechless. It has a front page article with the headline: "GOP finds grist for campaigns in projections of record deficits [this headline only appears in the print edition]."
The article goes on to explain how Republicans are yelling about the new record deficits.

There are two striking features to this article. First, Republicans have criticized President Obama for everything under the sun, including a speech encouraging children to work hard in school. That the Republicans are critical of the latest budget projections is not news and certainly not front page news. Although it might merit a front page story if they did not criticize the projections.

The other striking feature of this story is that the front page only presented the Republican criticisms. Only those who read to the jump page saw that Democrats response that the deficits were the result of the economic collapse in 2008. Even this point is largely left as a matter of "he said, she said," rather than being reported as the fact that it is.

 
Goldman Sachs Finds Cutting Government Spending Slows Growth, Post Columnist Michael Gerson Says Opposite Print
Saturday, 24 July 2010 08:30

The folks who thought the housing bubble was cool are now working overtime to make the victims of its collapse suffer as much as possible. This presumably explains the reason that Washington Post columnist Michael Gerson claimed that a Goldman Sachs study of 44 countries found that a study of 44 countries found that: "reducing government expenditures by one percentage point, in contrast, increases average annual growth by 0.6 percentage points."

What the study actually found was that a one percentage point decline in government consumption expenditures was associated with a 0.63 percent increase in growth. However, it found that a one percentage point increase in government investment expenditures (spending on education, research, infrastructure etc. ) was associated with a 1.25 percentage point increase in growth. This would mean, for example, that a one percentage point decline in spending that was split evenly between cuts to government consumption and cuts to investment would lead to 0.31 percentage point decline in GDP growth.

There are reasons that this study is inapplicable to current circumstances. Most notably, the bulk of the benefit from spending cuts appears to come through the channel of lower interest rates inducing more investment. This is unlikely to be a important channel given that interest rates are already extremely low, however, even ignoring this issue, Gerson has seriously misrepresented the findings of the study that he cited.  

 
Has Anyone at NPR Heard About the Housing Bubble? Print
Friday, 23 July 2010 05:06

The housing bubble -- you know that $8 trillion run up in house prices. When it burst it led to a financial crisis that almost brought down the financial system. It also pushed the economy into the worst downturn in 70 years, since its collapse caused construction to plummet and consumption (which had been fueled by bubble created home equity) to plunge.

You would think that people who report on the housing market would have noticed the bubble -- sort of like environmental reporters taking note of global warming -- but that doesn't seem to be the case at NPR. It ran two separate stories this morning on the housing market, neither of which made any reference to the housing bubble.

The second included an extended presentation of the views of Nicolas Retsinas, the director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Mr. Retsinas gained notoriety for insisting that there was no bubble during the peak years of the run-up in house prices and insisting that it was still a good time for moderate income families to buy homes. 

 
The Fed Can Just Hold Mortgage Backed Securities, Reducing Interest Burdens Print
Friday, 23 July 2010 04:44

The NYT portrayed the Fed as facing a serious dilemma in dealing with its portfolio of mortgage backed securities (MBS). It argued that it can either start selling them now and risk slowing the economy or wait until the economy has recovered more and risk losing money by selling them in a higher inflation environment.

There actually is another option that would address the deficit concerns that appear constantly in the NYT and other media outlets. The Fed could simply hold the bonds indefinitely and then reinvest the proceeds in Treasury bonds when the MBS are paid off. This means that the Fed would have a constant flow of interest income which would be rebated to the Treasury, reducing the interest burden from the debt to the Treasury. Insofar as it is worried about inflation, the Fed could raise bank reserve requirements (on a fixed schedule) among other actions.

This option should have been discussed in the article. Japan's central bank has gone the route of holding large amounts of long-term debt for long periods of time. In spite of this fact, the country remains far more concerned about deflation than inflation.  

 
Gates Can't Build Every Weapon System in Sight and Still Meet the Rising Defense Budget: Where is the Paradox? Print
Friday, 23 July 2010 04:33

The NYT had a peculiar front page article in which it portrayed Defense Secretary Robert Gates as a budget cutter even though he wants to increase the defense budget by 1.0 percent a year in excess of inflation. It notes that he doesn't want the government to buy some of the weapons system being pushed by Congress. It then comments:

"In one of the paradoxes of Washington budget battles, Mr. Gates, even as he tries to forestall deeper cuts, is trying to kill weapons programs he says the military does not need over the objections of members of Congress who want to protect jobs."

It is not clear what the article views as paradoxical. Increasing the defense budget by 1.0 percent a year in excess of inflation does not imply an austere budget. Nonetheless it also doesn't imply an infinite budget. There is nothing paradoxical about the defense secretary having to set priorities in this context.

The article also includes the peculiar comment that defense spending:

"has averaged an inflation-adjusted growth rate of 7 percent a year over the last decade (nearly 12 percent a year without adjusting for inflation), including the costs of the wars."

Inflation has not averaged anywhere near 5 percent over the last decade, so the 12 percent nominal growth rate is inconsistent with the 7 percent real growth rate.

 
Businesses Are Not Hiring Because of a Lack of Demand, Not Confidence Print
Thursday, 22 July 2010 08:42
USA Today wrongly told readers that: "private employers are uncertain about the economy's health and are hesitant to add jobs." The uncertainty of businesses does not explain their reluctance to add workers. If this were the case, then businesses would be increasing the number of hours worked per worker. While average weekly hours are up somewhat from the low hit last fall, they are still down by 0.7 hours from their pre-recession level. This indicates that firms are not hiring because they have no need of additional labor.
 
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About Beat the Press

Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He is the author of several books, his latest being The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive. Read more about Dean.

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