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WSJ Calls Social Security Surplus a Shortfall Print
Thursday, 05 August 2010 11:41

It's super silly season in Washington. The powers that be have decided that Social Security should be cut, so now anyone can say anything they want against the program, even if it is directly contradicted by the evidence.

In this spirit the WSJ told readers: "In 2010, Social Security expenditures will exceed receipts for the first time since 1983, the last time Congress enacted major changes to the program." This is not true. As trustees report clearly shows, the program is projected to have a surplus of almost $80 billion in 2010. It is true that tax receipts will be less than projected benefits, but that is not a relevant figure for the program since it also collects interest on the bonds held by the trust fund.

 

 
State Budget Deficits Are Due to Plunging Revenue, Not Higher Spending Print
Thursday, 05 August 2010 04:59
The Post should have reminded readers of this fact when reporting that: "Republican leaders criticized the package as a giveaway to labor and an undeserved bailout for profligate state governments." The package in question was a bill to provide additional funding for education and health care to states.
 
In Addition to Geithner, Republican Economists Also Argue That Tax Cuts Do Not Pay for Themselves Print
Thursday, 05 August 2010 04:37

The NYT discussed the Obama administration's plans to extend President Bush's tax cuts only for households earning less than $250,000 a year. The article also reported on Republican claims that not extending the tax breaks for the wealthy would hurt the economy. It concluded by telling readers that:

"he [Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner] dismissed as “myths” Republican arguments that tax cuts pay for themselves, by bringing in new revenues from economic growth."

It would have been helpful to note that this is not just Secretary Geithner or the Democrat's view. It is the near unanimous view of every economist who has examined the issue, including Republican economists. For example, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a prominent Republican economist who was the chief economic advisor to John McCain in his presidential campaign, examined this issue when he headed the Congressional Budget Office. He used a wide variety of models and found that in the most optimistic scenario additional growth could temporarily replace 30 percent of the lost revenue. (Even this increase would largely disappear in the long run.)

The treatment of the issue in the article may lead readers to believe that the question of whether tax cuts pay for themselves is one that is actively debated by economists. In fact, it has long been settled even if some Republican politicians choose to ignore the evidence.

 
The NYT Gives Track Records on the Oil Spill, Why Not on the Housing Bubble? Print
Thursday, 05 August 2010 04:16

In a discussion of the impact of the BP oil spill, the NYT qualified the estimates of the size of the spill from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by telling readers that: "NOAA is the same agency that devised the early, now-discredited estimate that the well was leaking only 5,000 barrels a day, one reason some people distrust the new report."

This is useful information for readers, since the fact that the agency had previously been off by a factor of ten in its earlier estimate of the size of the spill might suggest something about its competence and/or its integrity. This is relevant to the credibility that should be assigned to new estimates from the agency.

In the same vein, it would be appropriate to report on the failure of individual economists or organizations, like Harvard's Joint Center on Housing, to notice the $8 trillion housing bubble, when discussing the current views on the housing market and the economy.

 
USA Today Does Its Homework on Stimulus Print
Wednesday, 04 August 2010 05:06
USA Today has a nice piece showing stimulus spending by state. It shows that there is no link between spending and unemployment, in large part because much of the funding goes through preset formulas that do not respond to current unemployment rates.
 
The German Unemployment Story is Better than the NYT Suggests Print
Wednesday, 04 August 2010 04:22

The NYT had an article about Germany's relatively healthy economy, which is now growing at a healthy pace largely as the result of a surge of exports. The article also notes the effectiveness of Germany's work sharing policy which provides tax credits to companies for shortening hours rather than laying off workers. This policy has been even more effective than the article implies.

While the article tells readers that Germany's unemployment rate is 7.6 percent, this is the German government measure. This measure counts people who want full-time work but only have part-time jobs as being unemployed. By contrast, the OECD's methodology, which is similar to the one used by the United States, shows a German unemployment rate of 7.0 percent, roughly the same as before the downturn.

 
Savings to the Medicare Trust Fund Can ONLY Occur on Paper Print
Tuesday, 03 August 2010 05:18

In an article reporting on a study that concluded that the health care reform bill will lead to substantial savings for Medicare, the Washington Post told readers:

"critics say trust fund solvency will only improve on paper, since actual savings from the Medicare cuts would have been spent to provide coverage for more than 30 million uninsured Americans."

This is a real trip to bizzaro world. The Medicare trust fund is an accounting entity. Improvements can by definition only occur on paper, or more accurately in computer entries. It is not clear what the Post thinks it means with this statement. 

 

 
Bernanke Thinks that Wages Are Rising? Print
Tuesday, 03 August 2010 05:00
The NYT headline told readers that, "Bernanke Says Rising Wages Will Lift Spending." Real wages have been virtually unchanged over the last year. Let's hope that the NYT got the story wrong and that Bernanke knows this.
 
Andrew Ross Sorkin Doesn't Believe that Executive Compensation is Tied to Company Performance Print
Tuesday, 03 August 2010 04:52

Andrew Ross Sorkin argued that assessing fines against companies for misleading shareholders is unfair because it punishes the shareholders a second time. Actually, if shareholders know that their companies will be punished, hurting its stock price, if its top executives lie about the company's performance, then they have more incentive to ensure that they do not get lying executives. This is a desirable outcome since their lying will distort stock prices, and in principle, lead to misplaced investment.

Of course if shareholders really have very little control over companies then this increased incentive will have little effect. However, that would be a very serious indictment of the system of corporate governance.  

 
Ummm, It Was the Central Bankers' Fault Print
Tuesday, 03 August 2010 04:36

The NYT had an article on the hostility being directed toward the head of Hungary's central bank. The article implies that such hostility is misdirected, beginning the piece with the comment: "it’s not easy being a central banker in Europe — especially during the biggest economic crisis in a generation"

This comment is sort of like saying that it's not easy to be head of BP, especially in the middle of the largest oil spill in the history of the world. The reason that we are having the economic crisis is because of the failure of Europe's central bankers to notice the huge housing bubbles that were distorting economies throughout Europe and much of the world. If Europe's central bankers had been doing their job competently they would have acted to rein in these bubbles before they grew large enough to endanger the economy. Instead, they were obsessed with reaching their 2.0 percent inflation target.

 
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About Beat the Press

Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He is the author of several books, his latest being The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive. Read more about Dean.

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