Another Front Page Editorial from the Washington Post

Friday, 09 April 2010 05:07

The Washington Post (a.k.a. Fox on 15th) feels so strongly that we should reduce the budget deficit that they ran yet another front page editorial on the topic. The piece told readers in the second paragraph:

"This mounting government debt poses a painful choice for developed countries such as Britain, Japan and the United States: either a deep reordering of public expectations about everything from the retirement age to tax rates, or slower growth as record levels of borrowing crimp economic activity."

Well, that's pretty clear. The Washington Post told us in no uncertain terms that things will have to be pretty bad, no two ways about it. Only those who bothered to read to page two would find out that there is actually considerable uncertainty about the point at which debt really poses a serious burden on the economy. On page two they would discover the United States actually had a debt to GDP ratio that was nearly twice as high as it is presently. This did not prevent it from having three decades of extraordinarily rapid growth.

The Post's sharp paragraph two warning also ignores the great Citigroup profit trick that the Post applauded last week. The Citigroup profit trick involved the government buying Citigroup stock, guaranteeing the company's survival when it otherwise would have been bankrupt, then selling the stock at a profit when the price rises because of the government guarantee.

The Post warmly applauded this move and saw it as giving the government money -- a great win-win story. Of course, the government can follow the same route pretty much without limit. It can take large stakes in all sorts of companies, then guarantee the companies' debts, thereby lowering borrowing costs and increasing profits. This will raise the stock price, thereby allowing the government to sell at a profit.

The real story of course is that the economy is well below its full employment level of output. This means that it can increase output by just printing money. However, superstitions held by the people who set economic policy and write about it at leading outlets like the Post are preventing the government from taking this simple and obvious step to increase demand. So, if the straightforward route is blocked by superstition, then we effectively accomplish the same thing by using Citigroup profit trick and win great applause the Post and other deficit hawks.