Alan Krueger is Wrong, Robust Recoveries Do Move In Straight Lines
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Monday, 05 July 2010 12:00 |
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In an article reporting on the weak jobs report for June, the NYT quoted Alan Krueger, the chief economist at the Treasury Department, as saying "economic recoveries don’t move in straight lines.” Actually robust recoveries from steep downturns, like the one we just experienced do move in pretty much straight lines.
When the economy first start creating jobs rapidly in April of 1983, following the 1981-82 recession, it generated more than 200,000 jobs a month for 20 straight months. The one exception was in August of 1983 when a strike at AT&T led to a reported loss of 308,000 jobs. This was more than offset by a gain of 1,114,000 jobs in September. Given the growth in the labor force, 200,000 jobs in 1983 would be equivalent to more than 300,000 jobs a month in 2010.
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So the tech stock bubble under Clinton produced superior employment and deficit reduction performance despite higher taxes, compared to subsequent tax cuts under Bush after that bubble burst which also demonstrated supply side failure.
The housing bubble comes along and bursts, and Krueger apparently suggests for the same reasons that taxes can be higher during the current deep jobless recession to reduce the deficit and promote job growth, as if raising taxes now would have same effect it did in the '90s to reduce the deficit.
Sounds like a messenger with a message for less stimulus and more austerity, yet presented as if they work in the same direction rather than obviously contradict each other.
Why not go for the whole enchilada like Bush did and claim instead that reducing taxes rather than raising them is a move towards austerity that will raise revenue and reduce the deficit. The media won't remember, teabaggers will be delighted, it's consistent with Keynes, and Obama can sell austerity over fiscal stimulus.