Fits and Starts Are Not Common in the Early Stages of a Recovery Following a Steep Downturn

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Thursday, 29 July 2010 13:24

The Post noted the weak economic data in recent weeks and then told readers:

"fits and starts are common during early stages of economic expansion."

This is not true for recoveries from steep downturns like the one the U.S. has just experienced. In the first four quarters of recovery following the 1974-75 recession the economy grew 3.1 percent, 6.9 percent, 5.3 percent and 9.4 percent. In the first five quarters following the 1981-82 recession the economy grew by 5.3 percent, 9.3 percent, 8.1 percent, 8.5 percent, and 8.0 percent.

We should be seeing robust economic growth right now based on past patterns. It is a very bad sign that we are not.