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Germans Flunk Economics 101

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Wednesday, 13 June 2012 04:36

Hans-Werner Sinn, the president of the Ifo Institute and the director of the Center for Economic Studies at the University of Munich, compellingly argued that the euro cannot survive in an oped in the NYT this morning. That probably was not his intention. But as one of the respected economic voices in Germany, he showed how completely oblivious that country's economic policy makers are to the steps that would actually be needed to address the euro crisis.

Mr. Sinn lays out how much money Germany has committed to the bailout of Greece, telling readers that Germans have taken on an enormous burden already to keep Greece afloat. He effectively is asking readers how much more can Germany be expected to give?

Of course that is not the relevant question. Germany will have to allow the European Central Bank to guarantee the debts of the debt-burdened countries. This will allow them to pay much lower interest rates on their debt, which will make the burdens sustainable.

The other step that Germany must take is to allow a higher inflation rate, propelled by more rapid wage growth, in order to allow peripheral countries to regain competitiveness. If there is not a change in relative prices between Germany and the peripheral countries then it will be impossible for them to reduce their trade imbalance, which is the central cause of their problem.

The appropriate analogy here is with putting water into a leaky bucket. Mr. Sinn is telling us how much water Germany has put into the leaky bucket of Greece. However it refuses to go along with measures that would patch the holes in the bucket. In fact, it doesn't appear as though patching the holes is even on the agenda.

If Sinn's views reflect the attitudes of German policymakers then the euro is doomed. Putting more water in the leaky bucket will not do the trick.

Comments (4)Add Comment
...
written by foosion, June 13, 2012 5:49
How much more will the Eurozone subsidize Germany by a fixed exchange rate that lowers the relative cost of German goods and services?

How much more will the Eurozone subsidize Germany by taking loans which fueled the housing bubble and current debt crisis, then bailing out those banks by various rescue efforts?
"The Central Cause of Their Problem"
written by Paul, June 13, 2012 8:57
Is the collapse of demand throughout the Eurozone, especially in the PIGGS. Until demand is restored to pre-2008 levels, there is simply no solution to the euro crisis. Just basic Keynes that every policy wonk should know.

Can't anybody play this game?
coal mines
written by david, June 13, 2012 10:17
Here is a short blog opinion by David Lizoain, from Spain. http://www.social-europe.eu/20...e+Journal)

Sample quotes to whet your appetite...
apparently the Salvador Dali school of Spanish conservatism is still going strong.

We are witnessing a twisted version Keynes’ suggestion that we bury bottles filled with banknotes in disused coal mines. Instead, money will be thrown down a bottomless pit called the Spanish financial sector.
Sinn Op-Ed Also Notable for Strictly Non-Economic Assertions
written by Hugh Sansom, June 13, 2012 10:58
A good deal of what Hans-Werner Sinn asserts has absolutely nothing to do with economics and everything to do with his understanding of European law and a very classical (read, "archaic") understanding of the morality of debt.

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About Beat the Press

Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He is the author of several books, his latest being The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive. Read more about Dean.

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