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Home Publications Blogs Beat the Press Hasn't Casey Mulligan Gotten the October House Price Data Yet?

Hasn't Casey Mulligan Gotten the October House Price Data Yet?

Wednesday, 05 January 2011 06:12

Casey Mulligan has a blognote in the NYT today dismissing concerns about a double-dip in the housing market telling readers that:

"the price and construction data so far do not seem to suggest that home values will be significantly different this year than they were in 2010."

Those looking at Mr. Mulligan's charts will note that he only shows the Case-Shiller data on home prices through September. This is striking because the Case-Shiller 20-city index was released the last Tuesday of 2010. This index showed a price decline of 1.3 percent from September to October. Over the three months since prices temporarily peaked in July, at the expiration of the first-time buyers tax credit, home prices have fallen at a 9.2 percent annual rate.

Home prices in the bottom third of the market, which was most affected by the credit, are plunging in almost every city. These declines are likely to affect the higher end of the market in the year ahead since the people selling bottom tier homes are the ones buying more expensive homes. These data form the basis for most concerns about further declines in house prices. Without the most recent data it is difficult to make useful projections about 2011 prices.

Comments (4)Add Comment
written by foosion, January 05, 2011 6:55
I can't recall reading any Casey Mulligan NYT post that couldn't be quickly and decisively refuted.
written by izzatzo, January 05, 2011 8:09
Home prices in the bottom third of the market, which was most affected by the credit, are plunging in almost every city.

Free market economist Dean Baker interpreted the price decline as a failure of government intervention to suppress free markets by artifically holding up house prices with a tax credit.

Socialist economist Casey Mulligan disagreed, claiming that government intervention had succeeded in holding up house prices, despite attempts by the free market to move them in the opposite direction.
Casey Mulligan - Lifetime Winner of Brad DeLong's Stupidest Man Alive Award
written by sherparick, January 05, 2011 9:12
One wonders who is more incompetent, and shameless about their incompetence: Casey Mulligan, the University of Chicago Econ Dept that gave him tenure, or the N.Y. Times editors who continue to publish him (he would fit in far better on the WaPo or WSJ editorial pages, which have been turned over to fiction writers for decades.

This again all goes to this concept, which a guy called Adam Smith came up with called, "supply and demand" and when there is a fall of demand and to much supply, the price of a item falls (eventually - because of human cussedness and misperceptions, it can be sticky - see Keynes and Minsky, whether it is wheat, houses, or labor.
"Venezuelan National Assembly Passes Law Making Banking a "Public Service":
written by Scott ffolliott, January 05, 2011 12:49
"Venezuelan National Assembly Passes Law Making Banking a "Public Service":
"Venezuela's National Assembly on Friday approved new legislation that defines banking as an industry "of public service," requiring banks in Venezuela to contribute more to social programs, housing construction efforts, and other social needs while making government intervention easier when banks fail to comply with national priorities."...
The new law protects bank customers' assets in the event of irregularities on the part of owners... and stipulates that the Superintendent of Banking Institutions take into account the best interest of bank customers – and not only stockholders... when making any decisions that affect a bank's operations."

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About Beat the Press

Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He is the author of several books, his latest being The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive. Read more about Dean.