In Washington the definition of an expert is someone who can be wrong all the time and still be an expert. The folks at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard are clearly experts.

The Joint Center gained notoriety in the last decade for completely missing the bubble, dismissing those of us who tried to warn that homebuyers in the years 2002-2007 were taking serious risks. Here are a couple of choice comments [thanks to Ben Zipperer].

"So that leads us to the conclusion that while double digit price appreciation is a thing of the past, that it can't be sustained, that what we're looking for at least in the next few years is a much flattened price appreciation over time. Over the long run however, we tend to be relatively bullish in terms of prices because we still have a growing population. And in many markets there continues to be constraints on supply. So a rough, rocky patch, lots of rain and clouds and maybe thunderstorms, but we don't think the sky will fall on the housing sector." - Nicholas Retsinas, July 18, 2006.

"2007 doesn't look very good form the housing market's point of view. I do think we may be near the bottom. The good news for example is inventories have started to stabilize, but at a high number. So I think we're near the bottom but I think we're going to be at the bottom for a while and if history is any guide, then it looks like this housing market downturn will probably last well into 2007, and it won't be toward the last quarter, maybe 2008 before we see signs of it turning around." - Nicholas Retsinas, December 26, 2006.

Given that the Harvard Center completely missed the largest decline in the U.S. housing market ever, they would naturally be the people you would contact to discuss the bottom of the housing market. In this case the Harvard boys happen to be right, sort of like a stopped clock will be right twice a day.

Comments (5)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Show/hide comments

...
written by JSeydl, June 14, 2012 6:50

2007 doesn't look very good form the housing market's point of view. I do think we may be near the bottom.

To put this into perspective:

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Harvard
written by RRaccoon, June 14, 2012 8:05

Put the name Harvard in the title and it receives adoration even if undeserved.

• 
• +2
• 
• 

Can We Please Do Some Housing Stimulus Now?
written by Paul, June 14, 2012 8:47

Since real home prices are now below the trough trend line, is it still politically incorrect to stimulate the housing market instead of strangling it with mortgage restrictions? Or should we just follow Romney's advice to let housing "hit the bottom" wherever that might be?

Millions of unemployed Americans want to know.

• 
• +1
• 
• 

...
written by Jay, June 14, 2012 8:49

I am not surprised. Paulson was Treasurer with a BA in English and an MBA from Harvard. How much economics do you think he actually studied in B-School? You can major in crew from Harvard and become an "expert" on anything, just because.

• 
• +3
• 
• 

...
written by djt, June 14, 2012 3:19

I work in the construction products industry and was therefore quite close to the Harvard Study group (not as a participant, but someone who read their reports closely and used it in my own analysis for my firm.

At the time in 2007 or so when they were saying the average number of new housing units per year over the period from 2007 to 2016 would be 1.8 million units per year, I was advising my company 1.1 million average over that period.

Harvard, you can donate my check to goodwill.

• 
• +2
• 
• 

(Only one link allowed per comment)

Show/hide comment form

Powered by Azrul's Jom Comment for Joomla!