The Government Could Save Money on Financial Oversight by Finding Someone Who Knows Arithmetic
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Saturday, 06 April 2013 07:32 |
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The Washington Post has a lengthy piece discussing the new Office of Financial Research that was set up as part of Dodd-Frank. The purpose of the office is ostensibly to prevent another financial crisis. The article focuses on the supposedly brilliant people who are staffing or advising the office and sophisticated tools that they intend to use on their job.
In fact, it was only necessary to have someone familiar with basic arithmetic and economics to prevent this crisis. It was easy to see that house prices had become grossly out of line with economic fundamentals during the bubble years. It was also easy to see that this bubble was driving the economy as residential construction rose to record shares of GDP and the wealth from bubble generated housing equity pushed consumption to record shares of disposable income.
The collapse of this bubble was the basis for the crisis. If we had seen all the same crazy financial schemes without the bubble, the consequences of their implosion for the economy would have been minimal. By contrast, if the bubble had grown to the same level without crazy financing, its collapse would have still led to a severe recession.
There are many people in positions of power and authority who like to focus on the financial aspects of the crisis because it makes it appear complicated and gives them an excuse for having failed to recognize it in advance and taking steps to stop it. The reality is that it was all very simple and the people in positions of responsibility were simply too incompetent and/or corrupt to do anything to prevent this disaster.
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+1000, you could use this to describe many political issues, especially, say, terrorism. Terrorism is a very simple concept but policy makers often are forced to define it in strange ways, otherwise the US and its allies would be terrorists and that would be a problem.
There is another factor at play though that does not exactly fit incompetent or corrupt, something you might call institutional corruption. The majority of people directly involved with the housing bubble/financial crisis got to their positions based on their ability to see things the way that would best suit the "markets" as opposed to how they were. By definition only certain people are able to do this-one does not get to be the New York Fed president if one has a have strong belief in the power of the "market" to redistribute income, nor does one get to be the Fed chair if you think the most important mandate of the Fed is employment-even though in theory employment is as important as inflation according to the Fed's own rules. You get to those positions if you believe in the "free" market, which has been defined by giving the financial industry the "freedom" to do what it wants, because of course it knows best, and would not endanger the entire economy. This is a far bigger problem then any individual and really requires systematic change in each of the regulatory bodies.