Why Does the Work Force Have to Be Replenished?

The Post featured an interesting piece by William Frey which contrasts the ethnic and racial composition of the baby boom cohorts with those under age 30. At one point the piece tells readers:

"Between now and 2030, there will be an absolute decline of 10 million (mostly baby-boom) whites from the ranks of our working-age population.

"Those ranks can be replenished only by the growing minority youth population. Much of this growth will occur because of births, regardless of immigration trends."

There is no obvious reason that these 10 million retired workers need to be replaced. There are tens of millions of people employed at relatively low productivity jobs like the late shifts at convenience stores, valets at restaurants and hotels, and housekeepers at hotels. If we lost 10 million workers, then many of these jobs could simply go unfilled without any major disruption to the economy or society. Workers would instead occupy more productive higher-paying jobs. The wages in these positions would also rise to keep workers from moving into other areas. (Of course at present, we have close to 15 million unemployed workers, so the retirement of 10 million workers need not cause any dislocation.)

This is not an argument for failing to properly educate and train young people of all ethnic backgrounds, but the claim that there is some crisis presented by the retirement of the baby boomers is mistaken.

Too many people in the workforce as it is
written by David M, June 10, 2012 12:23

This is along the same lines as all those recent articles panicking about the declining share of workers in the US population. They never mention that we have one of the highest labor participation rates in the world, that it was higher before the financial crisis than it had ever been, and that Americans work longer hours than workers in most advanced economies. Not having enough jobs isn't inherently a problem as long as there are other resources--families, social safety nets, etc--to ensure people can get by.

...
written by Jay, June 10, 2012 2:07

I think Dean is one to something with his work sharing idea. We work a lot of hours. We allow unlimited overtime, maternity leave is skimpy, and in some instances there is no vacation for workers. On Fred, I noticed there were increases in job postings but the actual hiring was not budging.

My concern is job discrimination and increasing unemployment. This is this assumption that the growing minority population is going to result in a more diverse workforce. This assumes a lot of things that are not reflective of how our society values and rewards educated minorities right now.

Before the baby boom
written by LillithMc, June 10, 2012 2:09

College educated workers were recruited and had competition for their labor. We need to maintain a world-class educational system. The combination of baby-boomers and large immigration, declining labor market and money being funneled to the top are important.

Less is more...
written by David, June 10, 2012 3:20

Baby-boomers retiring and then dying implies less need for janitorial services, etc. too. On the other hand, education does keep the electorate informed. Color me idealistic, but I dream of citizens who have not lost logic nor 'common sense', and who have the courage to understand progressive economics.

Why Does the Work Force Have to Be Replenished?

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