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Home Publications Blogs Beat the Press Why Should Unemployed Manufacturing Workers Care If Engineering and Design Jobs Move Overseas?

Why Should Unemployed Manufacturing Workers Care If Engineering and Design Jobs Move Overseas?

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Monday, 02 July 2012 04:37

Steven Pearlstein has a lengthy and somewhat confused discussion of offshoring in his Post column today. First of all, the discussion would be much more straightforward if it just referred to trade. There is no theoretical difference between the impact of imports through trade in general and the impact of outsourcing. It makes little difference to the U.S. economy whether a Chinese manufacturer sells computers to retail stores in the United States like Wal-Mart and Costco, or if Apple contracts with a Chinese manufacturer to produce computers that it will sell to Wal-Mart and Costco. By treating outsourcing as a special entity that is distinct from trade, Pearlstein creates unnecessary confusion.

This unnecessary confusion prevents the piece from getting any clear grip on the issues involved. At one point it tells readers:

"For economists, the theoretical argument in favor of offshoring is that, like all other forms of specialization and exchange, it is a win-win proposition for all the countries involved. But the theory is based on a number of assumptions, one of which is that trade is reasonably balanced — that once we started importing more goods and services from the rest of the world, the rest of the world will use that extra income to buy equal amounts of goods and services from us. Years of large and growing trade deficits have now called that assumption into question.

There is a vigorous debate among economists about how many jobs are forgone by running a persistent $500 billion annual trade deficit. There are some purists who would say none, but a lot of studies put the number at a couple of million."

This is wrong. Economists would in principle say that the country is benefitting from trade even if it is very far from balanced if the economy is fully employed. Given economists standard assumptions about the efficiency of markets, the U.S. economy could benefit from trade even if it had a trade deficit of 6 percent of GDP ($900 billion in today's economy) as it did in 2006. The argument would be that the country was taking advantage of low-priced goods and services from abroad in order to build up its domestic capital stock, both physical and human. Of course that is a hard argument to make about the housing bubble years, but that would be the standard economic argument about trade.

When the economy is below full employment, as most economists would concede today, then a trade deficit costs jobs. There is not much ambiguity about this fact.

More generally, the argument is that trade redistributes jobs. The current pattern of trade has cost the jobs of millions of manufacturing workers driving down the wages of large segments of the workforce. 

This fact makes it difficult to understand Pearlstein's concern that:

"But now that many categories of high tech have moved virtually all production offshore, companies are finding that they also need to move more and more of engineering and design work overseas as well."

Moving engineering and design work overseas would imply savings to consumers in exactly the same way as moving manufacturing operations overseas provided savings to consumers. It is not clear why Pearlstein doesn't want to see consumers save money. The lower cost of products due to cheaper engineering and design services would free up money to buy other goods thereby leading to more economic growth.

Unless the intent to redistribute income from manufacturing workers to more highly-educated workers, there is no more reason to oppose the offshoring of highly skilled jobs than there is to oppose the offshoring of manufacturing jobs.

Comments (14)Add Comment
Wither Tuesday Births
written by Robert, July 02, 2012 7:18
Why should people who weren't born on Tuesday care if everyone who was born on Tuesday had their property confiscated and redistributed? It would free up resources for 6/7 of the population.

Politically, the only plausible way to increase jobs and wages for less educated workers and reduce income inequality would be to make educated better paid workers realize that they (or their friends and relatives) could also be involuntarily thrown into the race to bottom by their employers, and that first they (capital) came for the autoworkers, service workers, and computer programmers. Only with this type of solidarity will there be reductions on mass immigration, trade, and an overvalued dollar necessary to rebuild a middle class society.
...
written by kharris, July 02, 2012 7:44
"Unless the intent to redistribute income from (domestic) manufacturing workers to more highly-educated (domestic) workers,..."

...
written by skeptonomist, July 02, 2012 9:08
The argument of those who favor moving manufacturing and other low-paying jobs out of the US has been that the US is shifting to a "service" economy. Supposedly the services in question, which ultimately turn out to be mostly financial, require a high level of education. This paradigm breaks down as all types of services move out of the country due to improved communication and higher levels of education in other countries. It is probably a false, propagandistic model in any case. The real motive for moving jobs overseas is to take advantage of lower wages - and salaries - while preserving a monopolistic or oligopolistic position of capital (including upper management). That is, workers are brought into international competition while capital is not. US policy is controlled by capitalists and upper managers, not physicians, engineers and design technicians.
...
written by AlanInAZ, July 02, 2012 11:23
"It makes little difference to the U.S. economy whether a Chinese manufacturer sells computers to retail stores in the United States like Wal-Mart and Costco, or if Apple contracts with a Chinese manufacturer to produce computers that it will sell to Wal-Mart and Costco"

As a retired engineer who worked for a multi-national I can tell you that it made a whole lot of difference to individuals rather than to the aggregate economy. I knew that as manufacturing was outsourced it was only a matter of time before my job was on the block as engineering and design activities follow manufacturing. In the latter part of my career I did need to go overseas to maintain employment. This path was open to me because of past technology development in the US that was shifting overseas. Newly minted technology grads will have fewer domestic opportunities as engineering and research move towards the centers of manufacturing.
...
written by Bloix, July 02, 2012 1:23
There was a time when trade advocates argued that it didn't matter that manufacturing jobs were being off-shored to China. We were keeping the high-value engineering and design jobs here! So what we needed to do was to give all Americans a college education and let the low-education jobs go.

But surprise! Chinese and Indian young people can learn engineering and design, too! So all the jobs, not just manufacturing, can go to Asia. And the kids who were enticed into college as the sure-fire entry into the upper middle class have mortgaged their futures with debt they will never be able to pay back.

What we'll be left with here is a country of financial industry grifters employing armies of yacht-scrubbers. And the most coveted jobs for the rest of us will be plumbers and security guards.
Economics
written by rootless_e, July 02, 2012 3:15
If physicists worked like economists, we'd have blog posts from physicists about how using the brakes on cars doesn't do anything because the simplest models of momentum and inertia don't account for friction.
uaw/retired 1977-2007
written by john, July 02, 2012 5:50
I watched as supperviser were walk out of the plants with boxes in hand,with sucurity next to them,in tears realizing that they had bough the corperate lies. This was befour 911,and after. Good luck collage grads,you will need it!!!
...
written by Robert, July 02, 2012 7:10
Engineers and designers are overwhelmingly members of the bottom 99% of Americans in income distribution. Those outsourcing their jobs and taking their jobs overwhelmingly are not. The middle class is facing a two front class war. Sadly, Dr. Baker has chosen to align himself with the 1%.
Ultimate outsourcing leads to ultimate growth?
written by Jacques, July 02, 2012 10:16
"The lower cost of products due to cheaper engineering and design services would free up money to buy other goods thereby leading to more economic growth."

To avoid the conundrum shown in my title, you must take into account that the purchasing power is lowered by the job losses due to outsourcing.

Not your best comment, Dean.
faulty assumptions lead to invalid models and stupid conclusions.
written by Tim, July 03, 2012 11:21
Examples of economic assumptions with no basis in reality.
1. Net exporters will spend the money they earn to increase imports, therefore eventually getting rid of the imbalance. Actually the imbalance will go away when the importer nation is too poor to buy the goods.
2. The money saved when a company offshores manufacturing will result in lower prices for consumers instead of just going to larger profits for the company and bigger bonuses for its executives.
3. The people laid off due to offshoring will get equivalent jobs because of the money saved by consumers now that cheaper imported goods are available.
not to mention
written by rootless_e, July 03, 2012 12:00
that omitting the concept of a "supply chain" from your economic model does not mean supply chains don't exist, it just means your model is a fantasy. If there is nobody building consumer electronics in the US, nobody will build lithium batteries. So when someone wants to start making consumer electronics in the US, or electric cars, they will find that advanced batteries are among the many items they have to import from China, making it more expensive to build a factory in the US and less likely that there will be jobs. Fortunately, the Obama administration is not as ideologically blind as "progressive" economists and has directly invested in battery makers so we now have a slight chance of success.
The dollar just has to fall
written by Dean, July 03, 2012 6:41
Actually folks, you don't need elaborate assumptions for the trade models to work. You just need to allow the dollar to fall until more people want to buy our stuff and we buy less stuff from abroad because it becomes too expensive.

And, no one who knows their trade models would ever say that the displaced workers get comparable jobs. The answer on this is absolutely NO! Anyone who says this should be forced to read a trade textbook 20,000 times or however long it is necessary to ensure they stop saying such ridiculous things.

There are winners and losers in trade. That is the theory -- also the practice. The path of trade has been structured so that doctors, lawyers and other high end professionals have been the winners. We then get dufusses who start to worry that the gains could go the other way if high end professionals are placed in competition. That is just bad economics and crass class war by the rich.
...
written by Student, July 03, 2012 10:23
I'm worried that the model being used is static and it lacks the concept of an industrial ecosystem. I'm thinking of Andy Grove's critique; ongoing activities in production and design are what enable acquiring the experience and capability to move into the next new area. He uses the example of batteries. When consumer electronics ceased to be made here the development of battery technology left also. The result is that the new generation of batteries that power electric cars are all being made elsewhere. Photovoltaic cells are another example.

In trade terms, comparative advantage is both dynamic and endogenous. We should therefore worry about the offshoring of both manufacturing and research/design jobs because they cut down the growth possibilities of our economy.

p.s. I feel like the world's biggest kvetch; I've admired your work for years, often sent friends here, agree with your position on MD protectionism; but my first comment is a gripe. But, it's a theoretically important gripe. I would love to be reassured that you have taken dynamic effects into account; Heckscher-Ohlin certainly doesn't.
oferty pracy
written by Janusz, July 07, 2012 2:12
Wow, Fantastic Blog, to bardzo pomocne dla mnie, a Twój blog jest bardzo dobra, nauczy?em si? wiele od swojego bloga tutaj, ci?gle dzieje, mój przyjacielu, b?d? mie? oko na niego.

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About Beat the Press

Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. He is the author of several books, his latest being The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive. Read more about Dean.

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