Obama’s Change of Cuba Policy is Welcome and Long Overdue; Reflects Increasing U.S. Isolation in a Latin America Mostly Run by Left Governments, Says CEPR Co-Director
For Immediate Release: December 17, 2014
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460
Washington, D.C.- News that the Obama administration is “changing its relationship with the people of Cuba” is due to the leftward shift in Latin America that has increasingly isolated the United States politically in the region, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) Co-Director Mark Weisbrot said today. The Obama administration announced the changes following Cuba’s release of USAID contractor Alan Gross and an unnamed “intelligence asset,” and the U.S. release of the three remaining members of the “Cuban Five” who were imprisoned for espionage after working to disrupt plots by Cuban exile extremists based in the U.S. Cuba is also reportedly releasing 53 other political prisoners.
“This historic shift is a direct result of the United States’ increasing isolation in the region,” Weisbrot said. “Relations between Latin America and the Obama administration have been the worst probably of any U.S. administration in decades. This will help, but new sanctions against Venezuela will also raise questions in the hemisphere about whether this is a change in direction or merely a giving up on a strategy that has failed for more than 50 years.
“Because of the historic transition in Latin America over the past 15 years, with left governments elected in most of the region, basically the rules and norms were changed for the whole hemisphere. Various Latin American governments – and not just those on the left – have been increasingly vocal in recent years that the status quo cannot stand, and that Cuba must be treated as an equal, and welcomed into fora such as the Summit of the Americas,” Weisbrot noted.
“Washington’s Cuba policy is being pulled into the 21st Century thanks to this regional shift.”
Weisbrot added, however: “The U.S. has pumped tens of millions into efforts to undermine left-of-center governments in Latin America, including Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela and Brazil. The just-approved appropriations bill [PDF] includes increased funding for these purposes, and the White House fact sheet on the new Cuba policy makes clear that so-called ‘democracy promotion’ will continue to be a major component. So these activities will continue to harm relations with Latin America. The U.S. still does not have full diplomatic relations with Bolivia and Venezuela.”
Weisbrot noted that the move was also made possible by an apparent willingness by the Obama administration to no longer allow Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Robert Menendez take the lead on Cuba policy. Menendez has vocally opposed the reforms announced today, and is considered a hard-liner on U.S.-Latin America policy.
Weisbrot pointed to the formation of international groupings such as the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) that include Cuba but exclude the United States, and the growing influence and pushback from regional organizations such as UNASUR (the Union of South American Nations), as more evidence of regional change that have made U.S. policy untenable. “Obama’s decision is also a clear defeat for the Cuban-exile extremists who have dominated U.S. policy toward the region for decades, more recently with their neo-conservative allies.”
Regarding the easing of the embargo, and Obama administration recommendations that it be reconsidered by Congress, Weisbrot said: “The U.S. can no longer ignore international law and the opinion of the entire world. This is a victory for the rule of law in the world of international relations.”
Slower Population Growth Could Significantly Reduce Carbon Emissions, Paper Finds
December 11, 2014
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460
Washington, D.C.- A new research paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) offers more evidence that slower population growth could significantly reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change. The paper, “The Consequences of Increased Population Growth for Climate Change” by economist David Rosnick, finds that that an additional 1 percentage point of population growth through the end of the century would coincide with about an additional 2 degrees Fahrenheit in average global temperatures. “Over time,” the paper concludes, “the temperature change is greater and becomes increasingly sensitive to population growth.”
“There are many warnings of ‘demographic time bombs’ due to population declines in countries like Japan and even China,” Rosnick said. “But lower population growth actually has many economic benefits; one of the most important is that it reduces the rate of global climate change.”
The paper explains that “A larger population requires more farmland, and increased economic activity means greater carbon emissions and more intense climate change.”
The author employs the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to estimate the effects of population growth on the change global average temperature by 2100. Observing that a larger population supports a larger economy, which translates in close proportion into additional releases of carbon dioxide (CO2), the paper notes that global temperature should in any year be nearly linear in relation to the rate of growth when the rate of population growth is constant.
While the author notes that technology or economics (such as reducing work hours) can produce a path of lower emissions, there also appears to be a significant climate benefit to slower population growth.
The paper notes: “There are many positive economic and social policies that can promote this transition to lower birth rates,” including “more security in old age; [t]he education of girls and women and increased economic opportunities for them, as well as affordable contraception and reproductive choice; lower infant and child mortality; [a]nd increased literacy, education levels, and productivity generally.” Moreover, the paper observes that reductions in population growth in high-income countries will have a greater impact on climate change reduction, due to “much higher per capita consumption and greenhouse gas emissions” in those countries.
“Fears of ‘demographic crises’ from falling population growth rates in richer countries are dangerous, especially considering the implications for climate change,” Rosnick said. “In fact, not only can working-age populations continue to support larger numbers of retirees, but declining population rates are good for the planet as a whole.”
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Holding the World Bank Accountable for its Research: The Case of NAFTA
Holding the World Bank Accountable for its Research:
The Case of NAFTA
May 24, 2007
The recent controversy that led to the resignation of World Bank President Paul D. Wolfowitz highlighted the lack of accountability at the World Bank. But it is not only its governance that suffers from the fact that the Bank, with 185 member nations, is ruled primarily by the U.S. Treasury Department. There are also serious problems with the Bank's research.
Last year, the World Bank established a panel of economists to evaluate its research from 1998-2005, including nearly 4,000 papers, books, and reports. Among other problems, the panel had "substantial criticisms of the way that this research was used to proselytize on behalf of Bank policy, often without taking a balanced view of the evidence, and without expressing appropriate skepticism."
But sometimes the problems are even worse, as when the Bank publishes erroneous research results, which influence important policy debates, and then refuses to correct its errors. The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) has tried to hold the Bank accountable for its research. In December 2003, the World Bank released a paper which purported to show that NAFTA had a positive influence on Mexico's economic growth. The paper was timed — and indeed, rushed — to have an influence on the political debate. It was released on the final day of the CAFTA negotiations and coordinated to coincide with the 10th anniversary of NAFTA (January 2004), which brought a spate of newspaper articles on the agreement's impact.
The World Bank's results, now shown to be erroneous, influenced the public debate. For example, they were cited by a Washington Post column in December 2003 and the Washington Post editorial board in January 2004, in support of the newspaper's arguments for CAFTA. In March 2004, CEPR responded with a paper that highlighted errors in the paper that negated its results.
The correspondence and papers below, between CEPR and the World Bank, explain the details of the Bank's errors and why they matter. The bottom line is that, because of uncorrected errors in the Bank's analysis, their econometric results cannot support the claim that NAFTA had a positive effect on Mexico's growth rate. As of today, May 24, 2007, the Bank has still not retracted its conclusion or corrected this mistake.
December 2003 — The World Bank publishes NAFTA and Convergence in North America: High Expectations, Big Events, Little Time (as Chapter 1 of Lessons from NAFTA for Latin America & the Caribbean).
March 2004 — CEPR publishes NAFTA at Ten: The Recount, which explains problems with the World Bank's methodology in NAFTA and Convergence in North America.
April 2004 — The World Bank posts a second version of NAFTA and Convergence in North America.
May 2004 — The World Bank posts a third version of NAFTA and Convergence in North America.
October 2004 — CEPR publishes Getting Mexico to Grow with NAFTA: The World Bank's Analysis, which explains the World Bank's methodological problems and errors that were not addressed in its subsequent versions of NAFTA and Convergence in North America.
November 2006 — The World Bank publishes The World Bank's Research on Trade Policy, 1998-2005: An Evaluation in which UCLA economist Sebastian Edwards reviews Lessons from NAFTA for Latin America & the Caribbean.
January 2007 — CEPR sends letters to Sebastian Edwards and François Bourguignon (World Bank's Chief Economist) reiterating the original concerns with NAFTA and Convergence in North America and asking for a correction.
March 2007 — CEPR receives a reply from the authors of NAFTA and Convergence in North America, and from Bourguignon, who defers to the authors. The reply defends thepaper and does not acknowledge any errors.
April 2007 — CEPR responds, explaining again the errors that negate the World Bank paper's conclusions, and once again asking for correction.
For more information, please contact Dan Beeton at 202-293-5380 x104.
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