Comments for Michael Gerson Has Trouble with Numbers and Is Jealous of Those Who Don't at http://www.cepr.net , comment 1 to 17 out of 17 comments http://www.cepr.net Sat, 18 May 2013 20:30:57 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20064 INTRO wrote [b] “Does anyone notice that total debt has quadrupled from 1992 to now, yet % debt to GDP has halved? Why is this? GDP has not grown by 800%.” [/b] Debt to GDP ratio has not halved! You can easily go to tradingeconomics dot com and verify this for yourself. In 1992 the USA’s gross public debt to gdp ratio was 64.1%. As of 2011, it was 103% In 1992 the USA’s nominal GDp has grown from roughly 6 to 15 trillion between 1992 and 2012. In other words nominal GDP is about 2.5 times larger in 2012 than in 1992. That mean nominal public debt in the USA grew by about 4.2 times over that period as you say – which seems to be the only thing you got right in your post. PLEASE NOTE. All the numbers above are for gross debt. Net debt – which accounts for what the the government owes as well as what it owns is presently at about 82% of gdp. You can verify this at the same website. Dean has presented 4 DECADES worth of data, which includes periods of very high real interest rates. As someone noted above, it makes no sense to fear strong economic growth will make public debts unsustainable. Exactly the opposite is what people should fear. - Emersberger Fri, 09 Nov 2012 07:32:46 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20026 http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/fitch-ratings-warns-obama-must-act-fast-to-get-deal-with-congress-on-cutting-us-deficit/2012/11/07/527d7a42-28f8-11e2-aaa5-ac786110c486_story.html Curious that the headline says Fitch is warning that Obama must strike a deal to reduce the deficit, while the article says the warning is against the tax increases and spending cuts. - Nick Batzdorf Wed, 07 Nov 2012 09:22:13 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20017 [b]skeptonomist[/b] wrote, [quote]... giving the probability to the nearest 10% would be more reasonable.[/quote] I think that's exactly what Andrew Gelman suggested. - liberal Wed, 07 Nov 2012 02:08:36 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20015 The number after the decimal point in 86.3 is certainly superfluous - giving the probability to the nearest 10% would be more reasonable. So there is some merit in Gerson's first paragraph - the rest is foolishness. - skeptonomist Wed, 07 Nov 2012 01:20:53 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20010 The GWB administration's budget said that the Bush tax cuts would pay off the national debt as fast as the Treaury bonds matured ! - H-Bob Tue, 06 Nov 2012 13:13:53 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20008 As Brad DeLong often laments, "Why can't we have a better press corps?" - Bart Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:12:28 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20007 The backlash against Nate Silver has been amazing. As you describe, he has method to his predictions that is not very novel or terribly unique, and if you read his blog he is always explaining it. There are many places you could disagree with him on, but it is noteworthy that his critics are NOT doing that. Instead they are literally calling him names. You have to wonder if people cannot understand simple probabilites and statistics, how are they going to understand budgets or global warming. - jennifer reft Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:59:14 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20006 Roughly $800 billion is what we [b]overspend[/b] each year on doctors, nurses, hospitals, pharmaceuticals, etc. (That's taking McKinsey's 2006 figure, $650, and multiplying it by 123 percent, which is how much medical spending has grown in just six years.) But who discusses this big chunck of a trillion dollars wasted each year? And it would not be necessary to have a Single Payer to lower some of the administrative costs. But this option is almost never mentioned. And if medical overspending is not worth talking about, why bother with the half trillion spent on interest? - Rachel Tue, 06 Nov 2012 07:46:20 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20003 [b]Intro[/b] wrote, [quote]It is because interest rates on the debt are at historically low levels, at negative real interest rates. How many people think this is going to last?[/quote] But if rates go back up again due to a strengthening economy, the deficit will have shrunk anyways, as revenues start to rebound. - liberal Tue, 06 Nov 2012 06:01:45 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20002 [i]Silver's 86.3 percent prediction is premised on the assumption that the polls do not contain a systemic bias and that there is not some event(s) that radically shifts the attitude of the electorate between the last round of polls and the election.[/i] Actually I don't think Silver assumes that there is no systemic bias in the polls. If one makes this assumption, the probability of an Obama victory would be much higher. Instead he looks at past polling to determine the percentage of time there is a systemic bias, and the size of these biases. Then he adjusts Obama's chance of victory down accordingly. Nor does he assume that there will be no event that radically shifts the voters attitudes before the election. This is one of the reasons that the "now-cast" was different from the the forecast. - Clifton Tue, 06 Nov 2012 05:02:31 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-20000 I think we are not looking at the bright side of having the opportunity of being in competition for market share with Luddites. Perhaps we should stop pulling their handwoven coats and rather praise them for their fealty to their traditions. - David Tue, 06 Nov 2012 03:39:37 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-19999 Yes, Intro, if something happened which is incredibly unlikely to happen, things could be worse. Your scenarios would require no change whatsoever in the present debt amount and interest rates to skyrocket for no particular reason at all (the market says it's not going to happen). That [i]is[/i] a non-existent problem; it's pretty much the definition of a non-existent problem. - JDM Tue, 06 Nov 2012 03:37:46 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-19998 The infallible George Will is predicting a landslide for Romney. George Will predicted the election of Abraham Lincoln back when he was a young journalist. The man knows. - bobs Tue, 06 Nov 2012 02:57:02 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-19997 Shorter Gerson: "F**king mathematics, how does it work?" - Matt Tue, 06 Nov 2012 02:56:19 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-19996 The debt is described as "a non-existent problem: problem in this article. He uses a chart of interest as A % of GDP to prove his point, but this is a perfect example of misinformation. Does anyone notice that total debt has quadrupled from 1992 to now, yet % debt to GDP has halved? Why is this? GDP has not grown by 800%. It is because interest rates on the debt are at historically low levels, at negative real interest rates. How many people think this is going to last? When this changes, and it will, then we will see why it is unsustainble. If you look at the graph above, you see it correlates to interest rates, not GPD. If we return to interest rates of 1992, our % debt to GDP is 12%. If it returns to 1982 levels, it goes to 24%! And that is at todays debt levels, which are only expected to increase. If we look at interest on debt under the current CBO budget projection, at todays interest rates, in 4 years the interest payment exceeds defense spending. In 4 years, if interest returns to 1982 levels, interest as % of GDP will be just under 50%. I would call debt interest under current rates unusustainable at todays rates. Debt interest at historical rates will make the "Great Depression" a "bump in the road" to steal Obamas rhetoric. And the author calls this a non-existent problem? - Intro Tue, 06 Nov 2012 02:31:16 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-19995 The pundits are just mad that their BS color commentary on elections and economics is being made obsolete. The emperor has no clothes and they're mad about being exposed and about having to share their thunder. It will hit them in the pocketbook. - David Tue, 06 Nov 2012 02:10:02 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/michael-gerson-has-trouble-with-numbers-and-is-jealous-of-those-who-dont#comment-19994 The Justice Department is scrambling this morning after discovering a worm on the Beat The Press server that doubles sends all messages. After further investigation, the Justice Department discovered that the computer virus picks just 1% of the messages and sends them twice. The virus has been tracked to computers in 6 swing states so far. - Robert Salzberg Tue, 06 Nov 2012 01:27:21 +0100