Comments for It's So Cute When People Who Couldn't See an $8 Trillion Housing Bubble Tell Us How Markets Will React to the Ending of the Bush Tax Cuts at http://www.cepr.net , comment 1 to 18 out of 18 comments http://www.cepr.net Thu, 23 May 2013 13:58:05 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20167 I posted this article on Reddit and got 600 comments, unfortunately most of them amount to "RON PAUL SAW IT!". http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/138dap /its_so_cute_when_people_who_couldnt_see_an_8/ - Buck Thu, 15 Nov 2012 17:34:06 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20166 [b]Floccina[/b] wrote, [quote]The sub-prime market was not that big.[/quote] But it was the entire thing that cratered, not just sub-prime. - liberal Thu, 15 Nov 2012 09:03:27 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20165 I wish we would stop using that term. - John Street Thu, 15 Nov 2012 05:06:23 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20162 Ryan, do you know something the rest of us don't? Ezra Klein just proudly announced Irwin coming on board his WonkBlog. I was really wondering about this first post; Baker's version here seems more plausible. Was there really a bust up over it? - William Berkson Wed, 14 Nov 2012 14:20:54 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20159 [quote]It's So Cute When People Who Couldn't See an $8 Trillion Housing Bubble Tell Us How Markets Will React to the Ending of the Bush Tax Cuts[/quote] Very true but I have begun to wonder if maybe it was Basel III that caused most of the collapse in the home prices and the economy. The sub-prime market was not that big. - Floccina Wed, 14 Nov 2012 10:03:17 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20158 [b]MacCruiskeen[/b] wrote, [quote]...the thing that nearly everyone who wasn't an economist could see...[/quote] True, economists as a class are woefully corrupt, but how many non-economists called the housing bubble as early as Dean did (2002 IIRC)? - liberal Wed, 14 Nov 2012 09:43:04 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20156 [i]"It's so cute when Dean Baker gratuitously reminds us of his amazing call on the housing bubble (i.e., the thing that nearly everyone who wasn't an economist could see)"[/i] Maybe you saw it, but the Washington Post didn't. Actually Dean is being overly polite here. The real point is that people who made a lot of money from not seeing what was in front of their faces are now trying to make a lot of money from seeing something that isn't there. - Bloix Wed, 14 Nov 2012 04:50:30 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20155 One things which should be emphasized, as long as we're conjecturing about incentives, is that if Obama and Democrats give in to Republicans on the threat to hold the economy hostage at the end of the year, that gives Republicans more incentive to repeat the performance to get yet more tax cuts for rich people in the future. The next opportunity comes early in 2013 with the formerly automatic vote to extend the debt ceiling. - skeptonomist Wed, 14 Nov 2012 04:26:22 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20154 [quote]the volatility in financial markets in August of 2011 was likely due to Italy joining the list of euro crisis countries as interest rates on its bonds soared.[/quote] I'd also add that on the day of the downgrade, there were some pretty substantial downward revisions to Q2 and Q1 GDP growth, which also likely freaked out investors a bit. - JSeydl Wed, 14 Nov 2012 04:05:20 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20153 One thing which does respond rapidly to tax-rate changes is capital gains. If investors really believed that capital-gains rates were going to go back up permanently to pre-Bush level they would be selling off to take advantage of current rates. This would not necessarily result in a stock-market crash because they could immediately reinvest (although they might try to hold off and take advantage of a dip in prices), but could cause a spike in capital-gains tax revenue. This is just what happened before the higher rates of the 1986 tax bill went into effect: http://www.skeptometrics.org/capgains.png data from the IRS). If investors really distrust Obama's economic policies as much as claimed by Romney and Republicans, that gives them more reason to dump stocks and cash in after a good bull market since 2009. - skeptonomist Wed, 14 Nov 2012 03:55:11 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20152 It's so cute when Dean Baker gratuitously reminds us of his amazing call on the housing bubble (i.e., the thing that nearly everyone who wasn't an economist could see). Not that he's proud of it or anything. - MacCruiskeen Wed, 14 Nov 2012 03:50:04 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20151 http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/tax-loopholes-harm-economic-growth-don-t-help-003652682.html - Robert Salzberg Wed, 14 Nov 2012 02:53:01 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20150 http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/our-long-term-fiscal-future-is-better-than-it-looks/?partner=rss&emc=rss&wpisrc=nl_wonk - Robert Salzberg Wed, 14 Nov 2012 02:36:55 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20149 I read that piece and had numerous problems, and a few questions, so thank you for providing a very detailed explanation. My takeaway at the end though was that Klein's insurrection has been killed by the editors. At least now he can join MSNBC I guess. - Ryan Wed, 14 Nov 2012 02:18:43 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20148 Seems Mitt Romney is still feeding the media fears we're all gonna die from cold war cliffs. - Last Mover Wed, 14 Nov 2012 00:42:00 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20147 Financial markets are supposed to be a reflection about what reality will be like 6 months or so in the future and so ending the Bush Tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans should already be baked in. The real question is when will the billionaire hedge fund managers lose their prized carried interest loophole. President Obama and Democrats have talked a lot about millionaires. I'm looking forward to the talk about the Billionaire Tax. - Robert Salzberg Wed, 14 Nov 2012 00:27:52 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20146 Missing from the WonkBlog piece is any mention of the critical component of the debate which was reported earlier that morning in The Hill and also in WaPo an hour earlier on Greg Sargent's blog. Grover Norquist has lost both a majority in the House and is down to 39 votes in the Senate. As the deadline approaches, it is inevitable that even the mainstream press will begin pointing out that only adherence to the pledge and/or an ideology that says you can't raise net taxes ever, ever, ever is preventing Republicans from raising taxes on the rich. Since Democratic Congressional leaders have also indicated that a resolution to the debt ceiling will also be folded into negotiations about the 'fiscal cliff', a teachable moment is taking form. Our current House of Representatives will be remembered in history as the only one that threatened the full faith and credit of America by not agreeing to pay for bills it created and for raising taxes on everyone as a matter of principle, the principle being to never raise taxes on anyone. Americans should be looking forward to celebrating an end to our collective alternate reality nightmare on New Years Eve. http://thehill.com/homenews/house/267467-norquist-pledge-takes-election-hit- - Robert Salzberg Wed, 14 Nov 2012 00:20:33 +0100 http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/its-so-cute-when-people-who-couldnt-see-an-8-trillion-housing-bubble-tell-us-how-markets-will-react-to-the-ending-of-the-bush-tax-cuts#comment-20145 The Center for American Progress has a plan to save $385 billion from Medicare. http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/report/2012/11/14/44590/the-senior-protection-plan/ News stories report it as a plan backed by the administration. That's more than half of the $700 billion - foosion Wed, 14 Nov 2012 00:16:46 +0100