CEPR Studies Find Significant Job Loss in Key Swing States

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September 14, 2004

CEPR Studies Find Significant Job Loss in Key Swing States

Performance worse in these states than nation

For Immediate Release: September 14, 2004

Contact: Debi Kar, 202- 387-5080
              Peter Wiley, Keystone Research Center 570-522-0738
              Amy Hanauer, Policy Matters Ohio, 216-931-9922 

In the context of the upcoming Presidential election, there has been much discussion of the recent economic performance of likely swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio. Three state-level studies released today by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) show that over the last four years, state labor-market conditions have been worse in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio than the nation as a whole. The studies reach their conclusions after examining data on job creation, employment and unemployment rates, and the loss of long-term jobs, during the period between the economy's high-water mark in early 2001 and the summer of 2004. The sharp national deterioration in the manufacturing sector, the reports argue, has hit Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio particularly hard, but the economic pain cuts across most of the three states' economies.

"Workers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio will head to the polls in November facing state economies that are far weaker than in most of the rest of the country," said John Schmitt, the reports' author. "At a national level, the economic recovery since 2001 has been very weak by historical standards, but these three states have generally lagged behind even this poor performance."

Between March 2001 and July 2004, Pennsylvania lost over 81,000 jobs, or 1.4 percent of total jobs in the state. This rate was slightly worse than the national average job loss of 1.1 percent over the same period. Pennsylvania has also lost a higher percentage of "long-tenure" jobs (one held for three years or longer) than the nation. In fact, between 2001 and 2003, nearly 1 in 20 workers in Pennsylvania lost a long-term job, compared to about 1 in 25 workers nationally.

In the same 2001 to 2004 period, Michigan lost 247,000 jobs, or 5.4 percent of total jobs in the state. This decline was considerably worse than the national average job loss of 1.1 percent over the same period. Michigan has also lost a large number of "long-tenure" jobs (jobs held for three years or longer). In fact, between 2001 and 2003, about 1 in 25 workers in Michigan lost a long-term job. While the rise in displacement rose nationally by 0.9 percentage points, the rate rose almost twice as fast in Michigan: by 1.7 percentage points.

In that same 2001 to 2004 period, Ohio lost 217,000 jobs, or 3.9 percent of total jobs in the state. This rate was considerably worse than the national average job loss of 1.1 percent over the same period. Ohio has also lost a large number of "long-tenure" jobs (jobs held for three years or longer). In fact, between 2001 and 2003, nearly 1 in 25 workers in Ohio lost a long-term job.

To access the reports, click on the appropriate state below: