New Paper Finds That Oil Price Decline Doesn't Threaten Venezuelan Economic Growth
New Paper Finds That Oil Price Decline Doesn’t Threaten Venezuelan Economic GrowthCountry Unlikely to Face Foreign Exchange Constraints
For Immediate Release: November 18, 2008
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Venezuela’s economy is unlikely to face serious problems due to the drop in oil prices, and the Venezuelan government should have plenty of room to conduct the sort of fiscal stimulus policies being employed by nations such as the U.S., the U.K., and China, in order to mitigate the effects of the global downturn, according to a new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The paper finds that even if oil prices were to fall as low as $50 per barrel, Venezuela would still have trade surpluses through 2010. However, oil industry analysts are projecting prices in the range of $80-$90 for the next two years.
“The data show that Venezuela is well-situated to pursue counter-cyclical, i.e. expansionary macroeconomic policies – especially a fiscal stimulus package – to counteract the global downturn,” said CEPR Co-Director, Mark Weisbrot, lead author of the paper.
The paper, “Oil Prices and Venezuela’s Economy,” by Mark Weisbrot and Rebecca Ray, considers a range of projected prices for Venezuela’s oil exports, and finds that:
“Developing countries have often refrained from implementing the appropriate fiscal and monetary policies that they need to stimulate their economies during a recession, due to foreign exchange constraints,” Weisbrot said. “But Venezuela is far from experiencing such constraints now, and is unlikely to run into them in the foreseeable future.”
*This press release was revised on November 20, 2008.
The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. CEPR's Advisory Board of Economists includes Nobel Laureate economists Robert Solow and Joseph Stiglitz; Richard Freeman, Professor of Economics at Harvard University; and Eileen Appelbaum, Professor and Director of the Center for Women and Work at Rutgers University.