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The Reagan Question: Are You Better Off Now Than You Were Eight Years Ago?

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September 2008, John Schmitt and Hye Jin Rho

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In his closing remarks during the final presidential debate of 1980, Ronald Reagan famously asked the American people: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

The table below updates Reagan's question by comparing the state of the economy in 2000 and 2008. We use 25 indicators of economic well-being and economic performance and find that 23 of the 25 indicators are worse in 2008 than they were in 2000.  Click here for a list of the sources used.

With this report, CEPR is trying a new feature for our site - allowing you to provide us with feedback.  So please take a look at our new commenting system below and let us know what you think.

Economic Indicator
2000 2008
Unemployment rate Image4.0% 6.1%
Inflation rate Image3.3% 5.4%
Job Growth (preceding 8 years)
Total nonfarm employment Image21.4% 4.3%
Private sector employment Image23.6% 3.6%
Manufacturing employment
Image2.9% -22.2%
Employment rate (% of population)
All, age 16 and older
Image64.4% 62.6%
Men, age 16 and older
Image71.9% 69.1%
Women, age 16 and older
Image57.5% 56.5%
Real wage growth (preceding 8 years)
Image8.2% 1.8%
Minimum wage (July 2008$) Image$6.58 $6.55
Family income
Median, 2007$ $61,083 Image$61,355
Growth (preceding 8 years)
Image14.7% 0.4%
Poverty
Rate (% of population)
Image11.3% 12.5%
People in poverty (millions)
Image31.6 37.3
Uninsured (health insurance)
Rate (% of population)
Image14.0% 15.3%
People without insurance  (millions) Image38.7 45.7
Personal savings (% of disposable income) Image2.3% 0.6%
College tuition (average per year, 2007$)
Private four-year college Image$19,337 $23,712
Public four-year college
Image$4,221 $6,185
Gasoline (gallon, 2008$) Image$2.03 $4.09
GDP growth (preceding 8 years) Image34.2% 19.6%
Productivity growth (preceding 8 years) 15.9% Image21.9%
Trade balance (% of GDP) Image-3.9% -5.1%
Federal debt (% of GDP) Image57.3% 65.5%
Net foreign debt (% of GDP) Image13.6% 17.9%
Comments (27)Add Comment
Hmm...
written by Ryan H, September 25, 2008 9:32
Sort of sums up what everybody already knows, but I suppose you can't give this sort of stuff too much press in an election atmosphere. My first reaction is to say that it's unfair to include gas prices in the equation, but you've got to figure the price increase is in large part due to the war and the unfair unfair advantage oil and gas have in the market due to the much larger subsidies they receive than clean, renewable options. Incidentally, I would count higher gas prices as a positive. Gas prices still probably aren't as high as they should be, but they are now closer to reflecting the true cost oil use inflicts on society in pollution and environmental damage. Also, I can't remember the number, but there are now many thousand fewer automobile deaths due to decreased driving. In my book, that's as good as lives saved by preventing a terrorist attack.
...
written by brian, September 26, 2008 12:00
I think you should add corporate taxes, corporate income, and distribution of wealth
$277 difference in median income after 8 years is better off?
written by bobalu49, September 26, 2008 4:01
I'm not sure that less than $300, even if it's inflation-adjusted, rates as better off after 8 years. I'm not an economist, and maybe I don't understand what "productivity growth" of 21.9% means, but if I became 21.9% more productive but only earned .4% more in annual income, I wouldn't consider myself better off on that deal at all.
But then, I'm not an economist, and maybe I'm just quibbling over the difference between 23 or 24 or even 25 out of 25 indicators showing that we were better off before the Supreme Court appointed George Bush to ruin the country and the economy.
...
written by Michael Brün, September 26, 2008 4:26
This is a nice job. One suggestion would be to eliminate the "number in poverty" and the "number without health insurance." Since the US population is growing, a higher percentage means a higher number, so those two indicators are redundant.

Also, in vogue in the Reagan era was the "misery index" combining inflation and unemployment rates. It is now 11.5% and was 7.3%.

Thanks for feedback
written by John Schmitt, September 26, 2008 5:09
Thanks for the comments. Any list like this has an important subjective element. Its not quite as bad as Top Ten Songs of the 1980s, but there is definitely a subjective element. Our goal was to paint an accurate picture and perhaps start a broader discussion of the state of the economy.

On some of the specifics.

I agree with Ryan H. that higher gasoline prices are, in the scheme of things, a good thing not a bad thing. Non-renewable energy should cost more. Unfortunately, I don't think that the American electorate is there yet. For most people, higher gasoline prices are still a bad thing.

brian suggests corporate taxes, corporate income, and the distribution of wealth. We wanted to include the distribution of wealth, but the problem is that data are hard to find. The best source of wealth data is the every-three-years Survey of Consumer Finance. The latest version of the SCF covers 2007, but the data won't be released until early 2009. That left us with data for 1998, 2001, and 2004, which we didn't feel gave us a very accurate picture of the situation in 2000 and 2008. We'll take a look at corporate taxes and corporate profits, and try to post them later.

bobalu49 is right that the real story with productivity is the gap between productivity growth (up a lot) and workers' wages and family incomes (barely budged). (Dean Baker has written an interesting paper (http://www.cepr.net/index.php/...1980-2005/) that shows that, properly measured, the gap is smaller than it first looks, but the main result remains, productivity growth has far outpaced wages and incomes.)

Michael Brün is right that we might have been unfair to include the "number in poverty" and the "number without health insurance" given that the US population is growing. We were trying to communicate the scale of what the percentage-based coverage indicates (millions more people without health-insurance coverage), but in retrospect, our presentation could have been better. On the "Misery Index," it isn't in the table, but we do discuss it in the text of the report.

Thanks again for the feedback.
...
written by jean, September 26, 2008 7:11
This is wonderful, I have this cut&pasted to my Word program for ammunition, especially with my republican brother. For us economic neophytes this helps alot. Thank you!
Corporate Tax/Corporate Profits
written by Hye Jin Rho, September 26, 2008 9:27
Thanks for all your helpful comments. We looked at two additional indicators suggested above:

Corporate Income Tax (% of GDP)
2000: 2.1%
2007: 2.7%
Change: 0.8 p.p.

Corporate Profits (% of GDP)
2000: 8.3%
2007: 12.0%
Change: 3.7 p.p.

Between 2000 and 2007, corporate profits increased 3.7 percentage points of GDP. Over the same period, corporate income tax increased only 0.8 percentage points. Whether either of these is good or bad, in and of itself, one thing is clear: corporate profits have gone up much more rapidly than corporate taxes have.

Sources:
OMB, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2009, Historical Tables, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/.../hist.html (Corporate Income Tax);
BEA, National Economic Accounts, Corporate Profits, http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#corporate (Corporate Profits)
Interesting, but needs a few caveats...
written by Jeremy, September 28, 2008 1:45
While I certainly agree that the economy has been mismanaged over the last 8 years, I think the comparison (and the implied message) isn't quite fair for 2 reasons:

1. 2000 was the peak of a long economic boom. The economy was in great shape (at least on paper) due in a fairly large part to the dot-com bubble. The growth was truly unsustainable, and I have little doubt that regardless of the President elected in 2000, we would be in worse economic shape now than we were in 2000. Probably a comparsion with the post-dot-com economy of 2001-2002 would be more fair.

2. The President doesn't really have that much direct impact on the economy - Reagan's was wrong to claim that, and this post is wrong to imply it. The large bulk of our economic woes should probably be laid at the feet of the Fed, who was willing to support the housing bubble in order to avoid a post-dot-com recession. In a sense, our poor economy now is much more a result of the good economy of 2000 than it is a result of President Bush's policies.

That being said, the cost of the war will impact the economy for years, or even decades to come. Bush and the Congresses he has served with certainly deserve no congratulations for fiscal responsibility.
Economies do not react instantly...there is a LAG
written by Benjamin Landman, September 28, 2008 5:18
I believe that Economies should be measure 2 or even 3 years after a new President is elected. In this case, a good comparison should be maybe Dec 2002 to Dec 2010. I believe the Economy is like a train that has a lot of Momentum and whatever a President or Congress does, has no substantial immediate effect, but takes 2-3 years.
adjusted for inflation
written by pedandtic number guy, September 29, 2008 5:45
does family income adjust for inflation?
Inflation-adjusted
written by John Schmitt, September 29, 2008 12:52
Yes, the median family income figure adjusts for inflation. ("2007$" is short for "in constant 2007 dollars.")

All the dollar figures in the table are adjusted for inflation using the CPI ("consumer price index"). (Well, actually, the CPI-U-RS, which is a special version of the familiar CPI. The CPI-U-RS applies the current CPI methodology to earlier years and is the best way to compare dollar values over time.)

The only dollar figure not deflated using the CPI is GDP growth, which is adjusted for inflation using the GDP deflator, which is the best way to put GDP figures on a constant-dollar basis.
sales marketing executive
written by Dean Marshall, September 29, 2008 2:20
I think stating the gross imbalances of our trade deficits would go a long way in showing why we're so much less better off.
We import more than we produce. We owe more than we earn. Our economy is consumer based not manufacturing. We save nothing and borrow for everything. We have more lawyers than engineers. Lastly, we're the world's biggest debtor nation. In less than 20 years we've gutted our country's economy to the point where we're a pathetic caricature of our former dynamic self. For me the figures foretell a gloomy economic future for a long while. The economy may not be in depression, but I'm slowly sinking into one.
Productivity Growth always outpaces wage growth
written by anonymous, September 30, 2008 1:04
I look at financial charts online a lot. Usually you can change the timespan. That would be useful here. Of course we are better off technologically than we were a month ago, or any number of years ago, but are we (average Americans) better off (financially) than we were 8 years ago, or 20 years ago, or 80 years ago? It would be interesting to see how the numbers for greater durations of time compare.

In the 60's, Alan Greenspan wrote papers and speeches on the gold standard and inflation, which clearly explain how (and more importantly why) inflation erodes the value of the wealth we average people manage to accumulate. They have always been my favorite works of economic writing, above even Smith, Keynes or Marx. Einstein and Russell also gave us very insightful writings on economic matters.

After Greenspan's writings mentioned above, my next favorite piece is "In Praise of Idleness" By Bertrand Russell [1932] http://www.zpub.com/notes/idle.html

There is no better explanation of how and why productivity growth always out-paces wage growth, or why that is a flaw in the utopian free market which we are told we should hope for...

"Suppose that, at a given moment, a certain number of people are engaged in the manufacture of pins. They make as many pins as the world needs, working (say) eight hours a day. Someone makes an invention by which the same number of men can make twice as many pins: pins are already so cheap that hardly any more will be bought at a lower price. In a sensible world, everybody concerned in the manufacturing of pins would take to working four hours instead of eight, and everything else would go on as before. But in the actual world this would be thought demoralizing. The men still work eight hours, there are too many pins, some employers go bankrupt, and half the men previously concerned in making pins are thrown out of work. There is, in the end, just as much leisure as on the other plan, but half the men are totally idle while half are still overworked. In this way, it is insured that the unavoidable leisure shall cause misery all round instead of being a universal source of happiness. Can anything more insane be imagined?"

As you can see from his illustration, the productivity doubles, the wages remain the same, and half the laborers become unemployed. The answer to his final question is, "No."

In summary, Russell argues that productivity gains (human invention which could lead to increased leisure-time) do not lead to such due to our work ethic, which has been instilled in us since the earliest days of civilization, and nurtured and cultivated by those in power ever since, for their benefit, and to our detriment. I highly recommend a stringent study of this piece of writing to those who do not wish to be hopelessly enslaved while under the incorrect impression that they are free, as Goethe put it, in so many words.
Re: Jeremy and President vs federal reserve chair
written by Allan, October 14, 2008 10:51
While the Fed chairman holds significnat power the control of the President surpasses the Fed by a great margin: (1) the president apponts the Fed chair and all regional governors; the President apponts the head of the SEC, Tres Secretary and all other regulators of note, proposes the budget and certainly sets the overall tone of the finacial markets. While its certainly true that events such as the Arab Oil embargo in 1973 or the Great Depression (to name a few) can overwhelm the economy, I think its without question that the President exerts the greates sway over the financial and economic direction of the US economy.
Bertrand Russell, nice
written by Ryan H., October 15, 2008 2:05
I, too, have read "In Praise of Idleness," and it's one of my favorite Russell essays. He says some very incisive things about economics on occasion. I wish I knew where to find more of his economic commentaries.
One line says it all.
written by rk, October 15, 2008 8:09
The end of oil is the overall global pressure on the economy. The line about a gallon of gas going up is the single most influential factor in the whole array of numbers.
Main Street comments
written by YM, October 16, 2008 2:18
I saw Dean Baker on the Business Hour and what he said, he said for me. More please. The chart above is more than helpful for us ordinary folks to show to our "thought-less" friends.

I also want to thank him for sticking to his guns about there being punative clauses arranged for those who have created this mess. Surely there are some restraints on the books for SEC funds, Banks and boards.

I am rereading my "Power Failure" book by Sherron Watkins on Enron.
I question the two "better off" checkmarks
written by Steve Meisner, October 20, 2008 7:49
1) According to this New York Times article, median family income has actually decreased in that time period: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04...ref=slogin
In 2000, at the end of the previous economic expansion, the median American family made about $61,000, according to the Census Bureau’s inflation-adjusted numbers. In 2007, in what looks to have been the final year of the most recent expansion, the median family, amazingly, seems to have made less — about $60,500.

2) The other area of supposed improvement is actually quite harmful. Here's the next paragraph from that same article:
This has never happened before, at least not for as long as the government has been keeping records. In every other expansion since World War II, the buying power of most American families grew while the economy did. You can think of this as the most basic test of an economy’s health: does it produce ever-rising living standards for its citizens?

As this suggests, although the productivity of the American worker continually increases, they do not share in the fruits of their own extra labor. The owners and executives of American businesses are keeping the additional income that results from that increased productivity, sharing it only with speculators (and some relatively harmless investors), not workers. Additionally, most employers are cutting jobs, meaning that much of this added productivity is due to the remaining workers having to do more, work harder and longer hours to keep up with the additional workload. And, as inflation continues to more rapidly increase (but wages do not), that means lower and middle-class Americans are working harder and longer for LESS, while the owner and investor (the upper classes) are reaping the rewards of the increased labor of the working class.

Some people (like me) would call that exploitation. Others would call it "the invisible hand of the market." I don't like that phrase because it tries to cast the greed of the upper classes as amoral.

Therefore, the increase in productivity is harmful to all but the owners and investors in our society.

Do more work for less money (after adjusted for inflation). I don't think anyone would consider himself "better off" being in that predicament.
Family income, productivity
written by John Schmitt, October 21, 2008 3:57
Steve M. questions the two "better off" check marks in the table for 2008.

On family income, Steve cites an April 2008 New York Times article that says median family income actually fell between 2000 and 2007. The problem here is that the 2007 income data were not available in April 2008, so the NYT used an estimate for 2007 income (clearly marked in the NYT graphic) that turned out to be below the actual figure, which wasn't released until August 2008. Our table uses the actual figure and shows a slight increase in median family income between 2000 and 2007.

On productivity, Steve raises an excellent point, which we make (though less forcefully) in the text of the full report. See: http://www.cepr.net/documents/...er_Off.pdf

John
Magical thinking on "productivity"
written by Steve Athearn, October 23, 2008 7:23
Re anonymous: Russell is always a delight to read, but like most other 20th century thinkers, the essential underlying basis of so-called productivity gains goes completely ignored, much as water might be taken for granted by a deep-sea fish. Essentially "economics" came unto its own
during a highly abnormal period in human society: that of increasingly overwhelming dependence on exhaustible energy resources. In 1860 the majority of economic output was the product of human or animal muscle power; by 1960 the percentage had dropped to virtually zero. The key phrase in Russell's piece is: "Someone makes an invention ..." One can read article after article, book after book, including many incisive critiques of technological civilization, with barely a word on the underlying fuel sources which made it all possible (Richard Heinberg's 2005 essay "Tools with a life of their own" tells of his own consciousness raising experience on this score.)

Steve Meisner's comment is unremarkable in terms of the common cultural wisdom, but totally absurd if viewed objectively. "You can think of this as the most basic test of an economy’s health: does it produce ever-rising living standards for its citizens?" - and attributing it all, at that, to "the fruits of their own extra labor."

Would some economist have the courage to acknowledge the truth in this regard, just as Heinberg acknowledged his own former blindness, and in so doing begin to make themselves useful in helping us to manage the forced energy descent ahead?

Steve Athearn

P.S. The following is a highly telling comment on what we tend to take completely for granted - abundant electricity being regarded as simply a byproduct of "development," rather than as the product of levels of energy use enormously above that which might be sustained:

“Even coal has some limits. We have thousands of years, apparently, of coal. But what we don’t seem to have anymore is even tens of years of high quality, black, high-BTU, anthracite coal. And what we’re substituting it now with, is brown coal that’s so brown that it’s low sulfur, because it doesn’t have much coal in it. I’d encourage all of you to go to the New Yorker magazine in early October. They had two back-to-back articles called ‘Coal Train I’ and ‘Coal Train II,’ written by John McPhee – fabulously good articles. ‘Coal Train II’ traces you through the activities to fill up a unit-train that’s a mile-and-a-half long, in the Powder River Basin. It’s a hundred and twenty-four rail cars of nineteen thousand tons of coal. And then he rides the rails for five days to get to twenty miles outside of Macon [Georgia]. And then he describes beautifully this process of flipping the rail cars upside down and pneumatically sucking out the coal, and then the train starts back five days being empty. But nineteen thousand tons of brown coal creates eight hours of electricity. That’s low-quality coal.”
Matthew Simmons, Chairman of Simmons & Co. International energy investment bank, in lecture at the Miller Center for Public Affairs, University of Virginia, November 30, 2005
...
written by delaney, October 26, 2008 5:20
In sum, this is a depressing list of economic indicators. Is there a reason the untenable rise in home prices was not included in this list? Why doesn't the CPI take into account real estate prices?
Things are bad but why is the President to blame?
written by Jeremy B, October 29, 2008 4:49
First, let me state that I am neither Repub Or Dem here. I agree with each party on some things and strongly disagree with each on others. I like to look at the issues for what they are and try not to point the political figure.

With that said, there is no doubt that we ae worse off now than we were in 2000. I think another person made a valid comment that we are comparing one of the best years in our economy to one of the worst and then asking whether it has improved or not. Duh, of course it has gone down!! But let's look at why.

In 2000, we were in the dot com boom and the economy was thriving. Unfortunately, it was a bubble that was bound to burst. The effects of that weren't seen until Bush took office. With the housing bubble now popped, this has had an avalanche affect wiping out and affecting many industries that are only indirectly related. Banks made bad loans, consumers got bad loans, and these were all packaged up in the name of greed and stupidity to make as much of a profit as possible. As a result, the market collapsed. More importantly, this crisis revealed the larger concern (in my opinion) of our reliance on credit. I feel our economy has been overinflated for years. Household debt is now 131% of disposable income. This has gone up increasingly every year since 1949. We spend well beyond our means buying things we can't afford and sustaining an economy on credit. The housing crisis finally revealed how much we depend on credit. And now we see the effects of this drying up.

Contrast this with France who is much more strict in terms of their credit. Their economy doesn't grow as quickly but neither has it felt the effects that the UK and the US have had. It is my opinion that consumers and businesses and the decisions they make are what drive our economy and the Pres and govt have little direct effect on what goes on. yet that will never be a popular political opinion.

Why do I think that? Numerous examples from the Dem and Repub side. Tax cuts put money in the pockets of people for them to spend. Yet if people don't actually spend the money the govt gives us, it has ZERO effect on the economy. Stimulus checks were exactly the same. The govt HOPED that it would spur spending and for some people it did. But not as much as they had hoped. Govt now has bailed out banks and given them money. Yet very little is going towards spurring the economy again because banks aren't lending it out. Again, the effect of this lies with the banks regardless of what the govt does. The President has the power to appoint the Federal Reserve and Treasury heads you say. How has lowering the interest rates woked out in terms of spurring the economy? The govt can do whatever it wants but aside from consumers and businesses taking action, not much will happen.

So we take into account the actions of businesses and consumers in this loan mess, the increasing use of credit by Americans to inflate our economy, and the lack of a direct sustained effect that the govt has on the economy and we see that the President gets way too much blame when things are bad and way too much credit when things are good. It's just how things are perceived but it doesn't make oit reality.

Clinton didn't cause the dot coms to boom and he didn't cause them to fail. Same with Bush and housing. Sure, more regulations could have helped but greed, stupidity, the overuse of credit, and bad decisions on the part of consumers and businesses had far more effects.

So while the President may be blamed for where we are now, that perception doesn't fit reality. If you look at all the factors that contributed to where we are now, the President himself is far down the list as far as where all the blame lies. That would be true regardless of who is President. IMO, the greatest effect the President can have is the confidence of the people to go out, live their lives, and spend their money. In this and with his decisions, Bush has failed. However, from a pure economics standpoint, he deserves nowhere near the blame he is getting.
Am I bettor off???
written by Tony Arseneault, October 29, 2008 8:17
Am I better off today than eight years ago? It is not even a logical question if the following is reasonably accurate.

The value of the dollar against world currencies is what? Down

The toxic securities market is multi-trillions of dollars down?

Distressed households are up or down?

The Financial Credit bubble is taken care of?

Hedge funds are in the money or collapsing?

We are facing a multi-year recession or expansion?

There is potential for 10 million or more in foreclosures? The housing bubble is a core economic problem and until it stabilizes no recovery is possible. The continuing housing slide may push 20 million households into negative equity by 2009.

Wall Street is imploding or exploding?

We are looking at inflation or deflation or neither?

With a $516 trillion derivative "time-bomb" we are looking at what Warren Buffet calls, "financial weapons of mass destruction."

We understand the following financial instruments and have proper government regulations and enforcement: swaps, forwards, futures, puts, calls, caps, floors, collars, captions, CDOs, CMOs, CMBS, MBS, SIVs, SPVs, pass-through securities, etc. "the world's biggest black hole because they comprise a shadow financial system." A pyramid type chart of global liquidity from Bank of International Settlements/Independent Strategy shows: Derivatives 802% of world GDP; Securitised debt 242% of world GDP; Broad money 122% of world GDP.

Bob Chapman's assessment. "Using Bank for International Settlements (BIS)P figures, he cites a "Quadrillion dollar (1,000 trillion) powder keg waiting to blow and places this problem at the heart of the financial crisis."

George Bush's approval rating is about 21%. Congress scored just above 10% approval rating. This compares favorably with the public mood of the Great Depression's early years. Eighty two per cent of Americans believe the economy is getting worse.

"I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country....corporations (including bankers) have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed." President Lincoln

Comparing with the DOT.com boom?
written by Don, October 30, 2008 5:15
It is pretty ridiculous to take the period that includes the DOT.com boom with the period in which it crashed and in which we were hit with 9/11.
Considering those things, I think we were doing very well until recently.
Economists...?
written by Admiral, November 23, 2008 11:18
Does the unemployment rate talk about how people are better off in a snapshot? No, because what matters is where they came from as well as opportunity costs. Better yet, consider the destruction of manufacturing jobs. That's a GREAT thing. Do you wish we were all still farmers from the 1500s? Or slaves? It's a good thing we sent those jobs away.

Real wages, when total compensation is included (fringe benefits, etc.), have gone up significantly in the past ten years. Your gas figure is wrong, your GDP growth figure is spurious (the economy started expanding under George HW Bush, it started contracting under Clinton), the President **does not control all those things**, inflation figure is dead wrong...

I mean... seriously...?

The authors wouldn't last 2 seconds in a discussion on how economics really works. Unfortunately, UChicago isn't what it once was. Try Northwestern for an advanced degree nowadays.
Graet thoughts
written by casinoconsejos, April 11, 2009 1:24
There is potential for 10 million or more in foreclosures? The housing bubble is a core economic problem and until it stabilizes no recovery is possible. The continuing housing slide may push 20 million households into negative equity by 2009.i found this informative and interesting blog so i think so its very useful and knowledge able.I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this article. http://www.casinoconsejos.com
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