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DEAN BAKER'S BEAT THE PRESS Beat the Press por Dean Baker Four Big Flaws in Trump’s Threat to China Over the Dollar

Jobs Report
Global Economy
CEPR Sanctions Watch

Economy Adds 227,000 Jobs as Unemployment Edges Up to 4.2 Percent

Exploring the highlights of the November jobs report: job growth, unemployment rate, and the influence of the Boeing strike and hurricanes.

Dean Baker / December 06, 2024

A collage of financial elements features Benjamin Franklin's face from a US hundred-dollar bill in the background. A green upward arrow indicates growth, as stock market charts and numbers merge with a jobs report to symbolize economic progress.

view more on Jobs Report

November 2024 Jobs Preview: What to Expect

Dean Baker / December 02, 2024

Hurricanes and Boeing Strike Depress Job Growth, But Unemployment Remains Steady

Dean Baker / November 01, 2024

Trump’s Tariffs Are a Distraction That Can Continue for a While

Explore the potential effects of Trump's tariffs on the US's biggest trading partners. Learn about the political and economic implications of these trade policies.

Mark Weisbrot / THE GUARDIAN / December 04, 2024

A large cargo ship docked at a port with several cranes unloading containers. The sky is clear, and various containers are stacked on the ship and dock. Photo by Nareeta Martin.

IMF Begins Review of Unjust Surcharge Policy

Manasi Karthik / July 18, 2024

The Rising Cost of Debt: An Obstacle to Achieving Climate and Development Goals

Lara Merling, Ivana Vasic-Lalovic, Lorena Valle Cuéllar and Angelica Huerta Ojeda / April 30, 2024

CEPR Sanctions Watch November 2024

Stay up to date with the latest news on sanctions. Learn about the impact of recent events on Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and more.

Michael Galant and Pedro Labayen Herrera / November 27, 2024

On the eve of the annual vote at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on United States of America (USA) sanctions against Cuba, organizers urge the Belgian government and the European Union to take "concrete measures to strengthen their annual condemnation of the blockade ". (Thierry Monasse/Getty Images)

view more on CEPR Sanctions Watch

CEPR Sanctions Watch October 2024

Michael Galant and Pedro Labayen Herrera / October 31, 2024

CEPR Sanctions Watch September 2024

Michael Galant and Pedro Labayen Herrera / September 30, 2024

EleccionesElecciones
Fondo Monetario InternacionalFondo Monetario Internacional

Uruguay en una encrucijada: ¿Continuar con el declive o regresar al progreso económico?

Descubra las implicaciones sociales y económicas de las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Uruguay y las opciones que enfrentan los votantes.

Jake Johnston, Joe Sammut and Guillermo BervejilloJake Johnston, Joe Sammut y Guillermo Bervejillo / November 20, 2024 20 Noviembre 2024

A vintage blue car is parked on a street in Uruguay, where a wall covered in weathered posters and graffiti. The pavement shows signs of wear, adding to the urban, atmosphere.

Las controvertidas elecciones en Venezuela y el camino por delante

CEPRCEPR / August 12, 2024 12 Agosto 2024

Las elecciones en Ecuador podrían tener consecuencias perdurables

Mark WeisbrotMark Weisbrot / October 14, 2023 14 Octubre 2023

No a las falsas soluciones: los sobrecargos del FMI deben desaparecer

Alexander Main and Michael GalantAlexander Main y Michael Galant / July 03, 2024 03 Julio 2024

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Más de IMF

Más DEG para América Latina y el Caribe: una oportunidad en tiempos de múltiples crisis

Andrés Arauz and Francisco AmslerAndrés Arauz y Francisco Amsler / November 21, 2023 21 Noviembre 2023

Entrevista con Mark Weisbrot sobre las elecciones en Argentina

Mark WeisbrotMark Weisbrot / November 20, 2023 20 Noviembre 2023

CEPR examines how government policies affect growth, employment, prices, poverty and health in the world and US.

CEPR analiza cómo las políticas gubernamentales afectan el crecimiento, el empleo, los precios, la pobreza y la salud en el mundo y en EE. UU.

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CEPR en las noticias

US Adds 227,000 Jobs in November as Fed Expected to Cut Interest Rates Again

The Guardian / December 06, 2024

Crackpot vs. the Machine: Will RFK Jr. Target America’s Health Care Scams?

Rolling Stone / December 03, 2024

Trump intentó derrocar a Maduro, pero ahora el petróleo de Venezuela puede hacerle cambiar de opinión

El Diario / 30 Noviembre 2024

La izquierda regresa al poder en Uruguay: ¿qué se espera con Yamandú Orsi?

France 24 / 25 Noviembre 2024

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• Jobs Byte Economic GrowthJobs and WagesJobs ReportUnemploymentUnited States

Economy Adds 227,000 Jobs as Unemployment Edges Up to 4.2 Percent

Exploring the highlights of the November jobs report: job growth, unemployment rate, and the influence of the Boeing strike and hurricanes.

Dean Baker / December 06, 2024

• Report InequalityUnited States

The White Racial Preference in the Employment of College Football Head Coaches

Uncover the inequalities in college football coaching. This report analyzes the underrepresentation of Black men and the overrepresentation of White men in the position.

Algernon Austin / December 04, 2024

• Press Release Black WorkersJobs

New Research Reveals Racial Preference for White Coaches in College Football

A new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) shows that there is a distinct hiring preference for white coaches at Division I college football programs. White men are overrepresented in the head coaching ranks relative to their presence as student-athletes, and this overrepresentation has persisted for at least the past 10 years.

The paper, by Algernon Austin, the Director of Race and Economic Justice at CEPR, uses a representation ratio to assess college football coaching positions – in this case the proportion of people of a particular race who are head coaches divided by the proportion of student-athletes of the same race. Since the vast majority of coaches are former players, a representation ratio uses the racial composition of former players to evaluate the racial composition of coaches.

Roughly half of those playing football at this elite level are black, but black coaches account for only about 20 percent of head coaching positions. White players, meanwhile, make up a smaller share of the student-athlete population, but the vast majority of Division I head football coaches are white. In terms of the representation ratio, Black football head coaches had a representation ratio of 0.35 in 2024 – or about one-third of what one might expect. Meanwhile, the white representation ratio was 1.77, or almost twice what one might expect.

The paper also looks at the ratios in other major sports. Black men are proportionally represented in the head coaching ranks in baseball and outdoor track, and are underrepresented in basketball and soccer. White men are proportionally represented in baseball and outdoor track, and overrepresented in soccer and basketball – the latter being the most extreme overrepresentation of the five sports that were studied. The white male representation ratio in basketball is more than twice what one might expect.

“These findings point to a real crisis of economic opportunity for Black football student-athletes who want to join the head coaching ranks in the sport that they play,” said CEPR’s Director of Race and Economic Justice Algernon Austin. “If black athletes doubt that they would ever be able to attain such a position, they are less likely to even pursue it. In that sense, underrepresentation helps to maintain underrepresentation.”

The paper argues that an effective affirmative action program based on recruiting, mentoring, and providing equal opportunity to black former football student-athletes would create more career opportunities for black athletes seeking to coach at the elite level.

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December 04, 2024

• Op-Ed/Commentary Global EconomyGlobalization and Trade

Trump’s Tariffs Are a Distraction That Can Continue for a While

Explore the potential effects of Trump's tariffs on the US's biggest trading partners. Learn about the political and economic implications of these trade policies.

Mark Weisbrot / THE GUARDIAN / December 04, 2024

• Op-Ed/Commentary Jobs and WagesJobs ReportUnemploymentUnited States

November 2024 Jobs Preview: What to Expect

A comprehensive preview of the November 2024 jobs report. Discover the impact of the Boeing strike and hurricanes on employment trends.

Dean Baker / December 02, 2024

• Op-Ed/Commentary AfghanistanCEPR Sanctions WatchCubaIranNorth KoreaRussiaSanctionsSyriaVenezuela

CEPR Sanctions Watch November 2024

Stay up to date with the latest news on sanctions. Learn about the impact of recent events on Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and more.

Michael Galant and Pedro Labayen Herrera / November 27, 2024

• Op-Ed/Commentary EcuadorElectionsHuman Rights

Ecuador News Round-Up No.17: Noboa Overthrows His Own Vice President as He Marks One Year in Office

The latest on the political unrest in Ecuador prior to the general elections. Learn about the violent attacks and threats targeting presidential candidates and their associates.

Pedro Labayen Herrera / November 26, 2024

• Press Release cabinetelectionMatt GaetzTrump

Gaetz Withdrawal Could Presage More Challenges to Trump From Within His Party

Attempt to demonstrate his overwhelming power over his party could fail, and undermine his agenda

Washington, D.C. – The failure of the nomination of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) for Attorney General could be a major blow to President Trump’s power in his second term, said Dean Baker, Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).

“Trump’s choice of people for cabinet positions who are vastly unqualified — or as in Gaetz’s case, also unacceptable in other ways — seemed intended to solidify Trump’s position as the ‘Great Leader’ whom Republican politicians had to follow if they wanted to survive politically,” Baker said. “By accepting his choices, Senators would show that Trump was in complete control. But it’s not working out that way.”

Gaetz was a tough sell, having been investigated– although not formally charged– by the House of Representatives for sex trafficking. And he was widely seen as unqualified, and too partisan, for the job of Attorney General.

Some observers suggested that the Gaetz nomination was not serious, but only a distraction to help other unqualified candidates get confirmed. But it appears that Trump himself made phone calls to senators to try and get their votes, and dispatched JD Vance to lobby for Gaetz.

Other Trump cabinet nominees may run into trouble. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick for Secretary. of Defense, has been in the military in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is best known for his career at Fox News. He has little or no experience running much of anything, much less a $850 billion a year organization like the Pentagon.

And Chris Wright, the fossil fuel CEO who is Trump’s pick for the Department of Energy, recently said, “There is no climate crisis, and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition, either.”

Trump’s quick replacement for Gaetz is former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. She was one of Trump’s lawyers during his first impeachment and was on Fox and Friends during the last election making false allegations of vote fraud in Pennsylvania.

Trump campaigned at least part of the time as the “candidate of peace” and to “Make America Healthy Again.” But he picked Dr Mehmet Oz, a cardiothoracic surgeon and TV doctor, who has been heavily criticized for promoting unproven treatments — including hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 — to oversee the two biggest federal health programs, Medicare and Medicaid, that together comprise about 40 percent of total national health spending.

And his pick for Secretary of State, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, has never met a US sponsored war, or regime change operation — including against democratically elected governments — that he didn’t like.

“Trump’s trifecta victory does not represent so much of a political change in the electorate, and may not be as durable as it’s often made out to be,” said Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of CEPR. “Arithmetically, the last election is very similar to the last two presidential elections in 2020 and 2016. Just 1/7 of one percent of the votes cast separated the winner from the loser of the electoral vote this time.”

“George W. Bush, 24 years ago, was the last US president to have his party running the Congress and keep it for a four year term. It’s not that likely that Trump will do the same. He’s not off to a good start with his cabinet appointments.”

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November 22, 2024

• Report Economic JusticeElectionsLatin America and the Caribbean

Uruguay at a Crossroads: Continued Decline or a Return to Economic Progress?

Discover the social and economic implications of Uruguay's upcoming presidential election and the choices facing voters.

Joe Sammut, Guillermo Bervejillo and Jake Johnston / November 20, 2024

• Press Release Economic JusticeElectionsLatin America and the Caribbean

New Report Examines Uruguayan Economy Ahead of Second-Round Elections

Economic and Social Gains Made Prior to 2020 Are Being Reversed

Washington, DC — A new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) examines the Uruguayan economy ahead of the second round of presidential elections on Sunday. The report, by CEPR researchers Joe Sammut, Jake Johnston, and Guillermo Bervejillo, finds that Uruguay experienced strong economic growth and poverty reduction during the period of Frente Amplio (Broad Front) governments from 2005 to 2020, when social spending was significantly ramped up. This was followed by a reversal of many of these gains under National Party leadership, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic but also because of policy decisions.

“The parties on the ballot in Uruguay’s elections this Sunday definitely represent two very different economic paths,” report coauthor Joe Sammut said. “And it shows how big a difference economic policy can make: in raising living standards, reducing poverty, and increasing access to health care. Clearly the prior economic policies were much more successful than the most recent ones.”

The report notes that from 2005 to the beginning of 2020, Uruguay experienced a period of strong, inclusive growth that led it to be regarded as Latin America’s “success story.” Social spending increased from 18.5 percent to 25.8 percent of GDP, with new and extended cash transfer programs covering more than 30 percent of households and major health care reforms guaranteeing equitable, universal access. These measures helped reduce poverty from nearly 40 percent in 2005 to under 9 percent by 2019, giving Uruguay the distinction of the South American country with the lowest levels of poverty and inequality.

However, many of these gains have been reversed under the National Party-led administration since 2020. The Luis Lacalle Pou government faced a significant challenge with the COVID pandemic beginning just days after he took office, but his government’s policy decisions contributed to a slower recovery and a stagnation or worsening of social indicators — worse than in most of Uruguay’s regional peers.

The Lacalle Pou administration introduced a constrictive fiscal rule that meant spending less and reducing fiscal support faster than in neighboring countries. Spending was cut, with social spending decreased by over 3 percent of GDP from 2020 to 2023. Pandemic relief programs were phased out sooner than in neighboring countries, and monetary policy was tightened prematurely, with the policy rate rising before the end of the pandemic and six months before the US Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates.

As a result, Uruguay’s poverty rate is higher than it was pre-pandemic, unlike in most of Uruguay’s closest peers, and income inequality has increased, with the rich getting a boost in real income while the poorest 50 percent saw their real income fall by 16 percent.

The Lacalle Pou government also constrained wage growth and limited worker protections, including the right to strike, in contrast to higher minimum wage increases and the creation of wage councils under the previous Frente Amplio governments. Real wages have increased by just 3.1 percent, and the real minimum wage by just 1.7 percent, since the beginning of Lacalle Pou’s term in 2020 — the slowest rate of increase since 2004.

“There is much we can learn from the Frente Ampilo’s brand of redistributive economic policy and what it can deliver in terms of boosting economic growth and reducing poverty and inequality, perhaps especially in the midst of economic challenges,” report coauthor Guille Bervejillo said.

“The Lacalle Pou government has offered austerity at a time when many people need more support,” report coauthor Jake Johnston said.

November 20, 2024

• Comunicado de prensa EleccionesAmérica Latina y el Caribe

Nuevo informe analiza la economía uruguaya antes de la segunda vuelta electoral

Los avances económicos y sociales previos a 2020 están siendo revertidos

Washington, DC — El Centro de Investigación en Economía y Política (CEPR, por sus siglas en inglés) publica un nuevo informe que examina la economía de Uruguay en vísperas de la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales, que tendrá lugar este domingo. El informe, elaborado por los investigadores Joe Sammut, Jake Johnston y Guillermo Bervejillo, concluye que Uruguay experimentó un fuerte crecimiento económico y una notable reducción de la pobreza durante los gobiernos del Frente Amplio (2005–2020), periodo en el que el gasto social aumentó de manera significativa. Sin embargo, muchos de estos avances se han revertido bajo el liderazgo del Partido Nacional, debido en parte a la pandemia de COVID-19, pero también como resultado de decisiones políticas adoptadas por la administración de Lacalle Pou.

“Los partidos que aparecen en la hoja de votación en las elecciones de este domingo en Uruguay representan claramente dos caminos económicos muy distintos”, señaló Joe Sammut, coautor del informe. “Esto demuestra el impacto significativo que pueden tener las políticas económicas: en elevar los niveles de vida, reducir la pobreza y aumentar el acceso a la atención sanitaria. Es evidente que las políticas económicas previas fueron mucho más exitosas que las más recientes”.

El informe destaca que, desde 2005 hasta principios de 2020, Uruguay experimentó un período de crecimiento sólido e inclusivo que lo posicionó como la “historia de éxito” de América Latina. El gasto social aumentó del 18.5% al 25.8% del PIB, con nuevos y ampliados programas de transferencias monetarias que beneficiaron a más del 30% de los hogares, además de importantes reformas al sistema de salud que garantizaron un acceso equitativo y universal. Estas medidas contribuyeron a reducir la pobreza de casi el 40% en 2005 a menos del 9% en 2019, otorgándole a Uruguay el reconocimiento de ser el país de Sudamérica con los niveles más bajos de pobreza y desigualdad.

Sin embargo, muchos de estos logros se han revertido bajo la administración del Partido Nacional desde 2020. El gobierno de Luis Lacalle Pou enfrentó el gran desafío de la pandemia de COVID-19, que comenzó pocos días después de asumir el cargo. No obstante, las decisiones políticas adoptadas por su administración contribuyeron a una recuperación más lenta y al estancamiento o empeoramiento de los indicadores sociales, situando a Uruguay por debajo del desempeño de la mayoría de sus pares en la región.

La administración de Lacalle Pou implementó una estricta regla fiscal que implicó menor gasto y una reducción del apoyo fiscal de forma más acelerada que en los países vecinos. El gasto se recortó, con una reducción del gasto social de más del 3% del PIB entre 2020 y 2023. Los programas de alivio por la pandemia se eliminaron antes que en otros países de la región, y la política monetaria se endureció de manera prematura, con un aumento de las tasas de interés incluso antes del fin de la pandemia y seis meses antes de que la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos comenzara a incrementar sus propias tasas.

Como resultado, la tasa de pobreza en Uruguay es actualmente más alta que antes de la pandemia, a diferencia de la mayoría de sus pares regionales. Además, la desigualdad de ingresos ha aumentado: mientras los más ricos experimentaron un incremento en sus ingresos reales, el 50% más pobre vio caer sus ingresos reales en un 16%.

El gobierno de Lacalle Pou también restringió el crecimiento salarial y limitó las protecciones laborales, incluido el derecho a huelga, en marcado contraste con los incrementos significativos del salario mínimo y la creación de consejos salariales durante los gobiernos anteriores del Frente Amplio. Desde el inicio del mandato de Lacalle Pou en 2020, los salarios reales han aumentado apenas un 3.1%, y el salario mínimo real solo un 1.7%, lo que representa el ritmo de crecimiento más lento desde 2004.

“Hay mucho que podemos aprender del enfoque de política económica redistributiva del Frente Amplio y de su capacidad para impulsar el crecimiento económico, reducir la pobreza y disminuir la desigualdad, especialmente en tiempos de desafíos económicos”, señaló Guille Bervejillo, coautor del informe.

“El gobierno de Lacalle Pou ha optado por la austeridad en un momento en que muchas personas necesitan mayor apoyo”, señaló Jake Johnston, coautor del informe.

November 20, 2024 20 Noviembre 2024

• Informe EleccionesAmérica Latina y el Caribe

Uruguay en una encrucijada: ¿Continuar con el declive o regresar al progreso económico?

Descubra las implicaciones sociales y económicas de las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Uruguay y las opciones que enfrentan los votantes.

Jake Johnston, Joe Sammut and Guillermo BervejilloJake Johnston, Joe Sammut y Guillermo Bervejillo / November 20, 2024 20 Noviembre 2024

• Artículo BoliviaAmérica Latina y el Caribe

¿Quién es Carlos Trujillo, quien se rumorea será el próximo Secretario de Estado Adjunto para Asuntos del Hemisferio Occidental?

¿Por qué genera preocupación la posible nominación de Carlos Trujillo? Conozca su postura sobre las sanciones económicas y su papel en el apoyo al golpe de Estado de Bolivia de 2019.

Dan BeetonDan Beeton / November 14, 2024 14 Noviembre 2024

• Comunicado de prensa EleccionesAmérica Latina y el CaribeVenezuelaEl Mundo

Estados Unidos debería apoyar los esfuerzos de Brasil, Colombia y México para encontrar una solución negociada al impasse electoral en Venezuela

Washington, DC — Un nuevo informe del Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) ofrece un análisis de las disputadas elecciones en Venezuela y esboza un camino a seguir para los actores internacionales, en particular Estados Unidos.

El informe recomienda que la administración Biden y otros actores internacionales apoyen los esfuerzos de Brasil, México y Colombia para llegar a un acuerdo negociado y permitan el avance de esfuerzos diplomáticos durante los cuatro meses previos a enero de 2025, cuando está previsto que comience el nuevo mandato presidencial en Venezuela. Los líderes de estos tres países cuentan con décadas de experiencia en el tratamiento de problemas análogos al actual conflicto en Venezuela, incluyendo conflictos electorales propios.

Desde las elecciones del 28 de julio, se han difundido dos series contradictorias de resultados: una del Consejo Nacional Electoral del país, según la cual el actual presidente, Nicolás Maduro, ganó por nueve puntos porcentuales; la otra, de la oposición venezolana, según la cual Edmundo González ganó por un margen de 37 puntos.

La oposición ha publicado miles de supuestas actas de escrutinio que parecen respaldar su afirmación; la autoridad electoral venezolana aún no ha publicado un desglose detallado de los resultados. Sin estos resultados detallados, es imposible verificar de forma independiente el anuncio de una victoria de Maduro por parte de las autoridades venezolanas.

Como señaló el CEPR antes de las elecciones, ni el gobierno ni la oposición aceptarían la victoria del otro, ya que ambas partes tenían razones válidas para cuestionar la imparcialidad de la votación. El informe señala que, aunque “se ha prestado mucha atención a los desafíos que la oposición venezolana ha enfrentado antes de las elecciones, ha habido poca discusión sobre el impacto de las amplias sanciones impuestas por Estados Unidos, y algunos de sus aliados europeos, y sobre cómo estas han hecho que sea prácticamente imposible tener una elección demócratica, o libre y justa en este momento”.

Las sanciones influyen en las elecciones por la destrucción masiva que han causado, estimada en mayor que el colapso económico padecido por Estados Unidos durante la Gran Depresión. También han causado al menos decenas de miles de muertos, lo que reduce claramente las posibilidades de reelección del presidente en funciones. Y lo que quizá sea aún más importante, millones de votantes venezolanos eran conscientes de que estas sanciones letales probablemente continuarían si reelegían el actual gobierno.

Aunque Estados Unidos ha mostrado cierto apoyo a la negociacion iniciada por estos países, su compromiso sigue siendo incierto, y podría cambiar tras la celebración de las elecciones estadounidenses. El informe muestra que los 25 años de intervención estadounidense en Venezuela, así como “[l]a historia de las dos últimas décadas de política exterior estadounidense en el hemisferio” harían que “cualquier observador racional desconfiara del papel potencial de Washington en un esfuerzo multilateral para resolver una crisis política, especialmente una en la que ya está profundamente comprometido a apoyar a un bando contra el otro”.

El informe señala que “volver a políticas anteriores fracasadas” no ayudará a resolver el conflicto y “ciertamente costará muchas vidas, y causará mucho más sufrimiento adicional”. Por todas estas y otras razones, el informe subraya que es especialmente importante apoyar los esfuerzos de Brasil, Colombia y México para contribuir a una solución negociada del conflicto. Los líderes de estos tres países “tienen décadas de experiencia lidiando con problemas análogos al actual conflicto en Venezuela, incluyendo desafíos electorales propios”. Estados Unidos debería apoyar los esfuerzos diplomáticos que se desarrollen en los cuatro meses que faltan hasta enero de 2025, cuando está previsto que comience el nuevo mandato presidencial en Venezuela.

August 22, 2024 22 Agosto 2024